Class AA Girls
Season Best Projection: Saint Michael-Albertville (65.5), Wayzata (67), Edina (72.5), Farmington (103), Stillwater (160.5), Andover (184)
Season Average Projection: Wayzata (60), Edina (82), Saint Michael-Albertville (83), Stillwater (129), Andover (173), Willmar (208)
Top Individuals: Emily Covert (Minneapolis Washburn, 16:56), Lauren Peterson (Farmington, 17:27), Anna Fenske (Farmington, 17:39), Brianne Brewster (17:56), Emma Atkinson (Wayzata, 17:56), Grace Dickel (Minneapolis Washburn, 17:56), Ali Weimer (Saint Michael-Albertville, 17:50), Molly Moening (Saint Paul Highland Park, 17:52), Analee Weaver (Stillwater, 17:52), Liesl Paulsen (Eden Prairie, 18:12), Abby Nechanicky (Wayzata, 18:13), Josie Mosby (Saint Louis Park, 18:15), Caroline Sassan (Wayzata, 18:18), Morgan Richter (Edina, 18:16)
The Skinny: The defending State Champion usually comes in as the favorite, and this year undefeated senior Emily Covert doesn't buck the trend. If possible, she has solidified her rank as the top girls Class AA runner even more over this season, cruising to her third victory at the Roy Griak Invitational (winning the Maroon race once and the Gold race twice) with a course record, and becoming the first Minnesota girl to ever break 17 minutes outside the Heartland Region meet, running a cool 16:56 at the famous Gale Woods course. Chasing her down will be the perennial contenders from Farmington, Lauren Peterson and Anna Fenske. Last year's sixth place finisher Peterson has looked strong this season, running victorious at every meet except for Griak, where she took third behind Covert and Class A's Tierney Wolfgram. Her teammate Anna Fenske, the 2016 title-winner, got off to a tough start this season, but showed the grit and potential that keep her in the game, and looks like she's back on top of her game after running 17:39 at Sections. Also not to be underestimated is Lakeville South junior Brianne Brewster, who frequently flies under the radar but consistently shows up when it counts. At Griak, she beat some of the biggest names in Minnesota to take fifth, while at Conference she finished only six seconds off Peterson. And then there is Wayzata's Emma Atkinson. Her team's star power somewhat occludes her own, but Atkinson individually is a formidable runner capable of chasing a top-three spot at State. At Lake Conference Championships, she became only the second girl to run under 18 minutes at Gale Woods (Emily Covert did it in 2017).
Of course, it is hard to mention Atkinson without mentioning her teammate Caroline Sassan, who, after a disappointing race at Griak and missing Conference, pulled out an 18:18 at Sections to prove she still has it. Though she may be a bit of a wild card for State, it is no stretch to say she could easily snag one of the medal spots. Step for step with the Trojan frontrunners is fellow Section 6AA qualifier Grace Dickel, who Atkinson has nicked at the line in their past two match-ups. Other runners to watch are Ali Weimer, who should be looking to challenge Atkinson to help her team pull off the upset, as well as Saint Paul Highland Park's Molly Moening and Stillwater Pony Analee Weaver, who both dipped under 18 minutes Sections. Finally, Liesl Paulsen of Eden Prairie has quietly had an excellent season, generating several great times and been competetive against some great runners all season. Look for these girls and more to tear up the course on Saturday.
The defending team champions from Wayzata also come in as the favorite to take the 2018 team title, despite the fact that the virtual meet projections show it may be a dogfight for the top spot. By season best, Saint Michael-Albertville, the Trojans, and the Edina Hornets all fall within a seven point spread, with the STMA Knights, who have held a steady second place ranking in the Coaches Poll since Griak, actually snagging the top spot over Wayzata. However, neither the Trojans nor the Hornets have run on a course as quick as the Section 5AA in Anoka, where every STMA girl ran a personal best. By season average, Wayzata holds a substantial edge over the competition, while STMA and Edina fall in a virtual dead heat, with the Hornets holding a one-point lead. Still, with a dangerous lowstick in Ali Weimer and a team that has progressed remarkably from their third place last year (and done so almost entirely without All State senior Annalise Davis), the Knights are in arguably the best position to unseat the reigning champs. At Griak, where these three top teams faced off for the only time this season, Wayzata placed fourth to finish as the first Minnesota team, 44 points ahead of the fifth-place Knights. 82 points behind them back in seventh fell the Hornets, but it is worth noting that last year STMA also beat Edina at Griak, only for the Hornets to come back and take second at State. Edina finished only 4 points off Wayzata at Conference (who was missing Caroline Sassan) and 9 points off the full Trojan squad at Sections, but without a dominant low stick, it will be a challenge for them to pull off the win. Two advantages that may make them a threat are their impressive spread (23 seconds at Sections) and arguably the best 4-5 punch in the field thanks to freshman Maggie Wagner and junior Sadie Schreiner (who finished 14th at State last year and just tied her personal best of 18:40). However, both the Trojans and the Knights have the potential to put three runners in before Edina's number one.
Though these three teams boast impressive resumes, there are also several dark horse teams in the field who have the potential to knock one off the podium. With Anna Fenske finding form again, Farmington is in a great position to improve their sixth-place finish from 2017. It would be hard to find a better 1-2 pair than Peterson and Fenske, and thanks to the emergence of Anna's seventh-grade sister Mariah Fenske (who ran 18:33 at Section), the Tigers are in a great position to upset one of those three teams. In addition, Stillwater is an incredibly young, talented team, led by breakout star Analee Weaver and eighth-grade phenom Avery Braunshausen. And though Willmar has fallen off the rankings in recent weeks and fell to Marshall at their Section meet, a great day the strength of their top four (who are all seniors who have been the Cardinals' top finisher at one point or another this season) could make the three-time NXN-qualifiers surprise contenders. Finally, don't count out Andover, a sleeper squad that's had a lot of success as a result of frontrunners Alexa Havon and Alyssa Gerth, and could be looking to surprise some people out there on the course.