PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 1AA Championship
Location: Brooktree Golf Course, Owatonna
Weather: Low 50's, cloudy, rain not expected until late
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Red Wing (39), Winona (83), Lakeville North (95), Farmington (153)
Season Average Projection: Red Wing (26), Winona (79), Farmington (102), Lakeville North (109)
Top Individuals: Carter Briggs (Winona, 16:07), Colten Brand (Winona, 16:08), Weston Wyatt (Red Wing, 16:09), Tom Nemanich (Red Wing, 16:13), Meti Omod (Austin, 16:16), Bryan Zucker (Red Wing, 16:17), Isaac Threinen (Kasson-Mantorville/Triton, 16:17), Tyler Osen (Lakeville North, 16:19), Jack Otterson (Lakeville South, 16:19), Tucker Wallin (Red Wing, 16:23)
The Skinny: Sixth-ranked Red Wing started the season off very strong with a win at the stacked St. Olaf Showcase in a win over Mounds View that is looking more and more impressive the better Mounds View has been looking this year. And with consistently-great runs all season and a 1-5 spread of just 32 seconds, they have never relented on their status as the heavy favorite in Section 1AA. Both meet projections give them an advantage of over 40 points. However, it wouldn't be wise to overlook the Big 9 Championships where their margin of victory over Winona was just seven points as Tucker Wallin did not run. If Wallin is unable to run, Winona has a legitimate shot at taking the Section 1AA title away from Red Wing. They've beaten every other Section 1AA team that they've faced in head-to-head matchups this year including Farmington and Lakeville North twice each. That said, Winona certainly doesn't have a secure hold on a qualifying spot - one of their wins over Farmington was just by three points, and Lakeville North once was just six points behind them. Even their 47-point margin over Farmington was fairly thin considering that was at the 50-plus team Roy Griak Gold race and both teams scored over 500 points in the first place. Regarding the Farmington-Lakeville North matchup, the season-best projection is a bit misleading (and corrected a bit by the season-average projection) due to nearly all of Lakeville North's top times coming at the Ev Berg Invitational, a course much faster than anything Farmington has run on this year. In fact, in the four head-to-head matchups this year, Farmington has bested Lakeville North three times. The most recent of those occurrences was the South Suburban Championships where they only had a three-point advantage.
On the individual side, the race could be just as interesting, as there are a lot of excellent runners and no real standout. The top ten runners have season-best-times separated by just 15 seconds. But arguably the runner who's having the best season is Red Wing's Weston Wyatt. Wyatt has been a top-ten finisher in all of his races this year and won three of them. His most recent win was at the Big 9 Championships where he beat most of the other top contenders like Winona's Carter Briggs and Colton Brand, Austin's Meti Omod, and his own teammates Tom Nemanich and Bryan Zucker. His season-average time of 16:23 is also the best in the field by twelve seconds. Of course, Nemanich is the owner of the most impressive career-best time of 15:38 from last year, and while he's seen a bit of inconsistency this year, he could regain that form at any time. Brand and Briggs form a great duo and could help each other work up to a potential win, and Austin's Meti Omod is the section's big breakout star who has finished in the top five of all his races this year except one. KM/Triton's Isaac Threinen and Lakeville South's Tyler Osen also certainly have outside shots to take a win.
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Farmington (65), Lakeville South (81), Waseca (115)
Season Average Projection: Farmington (67), Lakeville South (84), Waseca (101), Red Wing (139)
Top Individuals: Lauren Peterson (Farmington, 18:04), Brianne Brewster (Lakeville South, 18:14), Ella Dufault (Waseca, 18:30), Anna Fenske (Farmington, 18:43), Grace Johnson (Red Wing, 18:52), Abigail Lewis (Austin, 18:53), Hannah Lamaster (Rochester Mayo, 19:03), Carsyn Brady (Owatonna, 19:06), Ana Mccabe (Waseca, 19:07), Anni Skillicorn (Winona, 19:13)
The Skinny: Farmington is currently ranked 5th in Class AA and they still boast possibly the best one-two punch of any team in their class. In their last two races as a full squad since the Roy Griak Invitational, they've been very difficult to beat, and even reversed their defeat at the hands of Stillwater earlier in the season. And as a result of running most of their meets either in difficult weather conditions or on challenging courses, they've consistently outperformed their virtual meet projections, like last week when they beat the favored-on-paper squad from Rosemount by 30 points at the South Suburban Conference (where they also defeated Lakeville South by 45 points). So while both the season-best projection and season-average projections put Lakeville South within 20 points, Farmington should still be able to comfortably take the win here. The battle between Lakeville South and Waseca for second in the section could be a bit closer, but Lakeville South does still appear to maintain their advantage thanks to their superior depth, and they have the advantage of winning the only head-to-head matchup between the two teams this season. However, it's worth mentioning that that matchup was back in August at the St. Olaf Showcase where Lakeville South finished 35 points ahead in a large field where Waseca's 8th-grade star Ella Dufault ran a pedestrian 19:57, by far her slowest finish of the season. A lot could have changed since then, and both teams have been mentioned in the Class AA honorable mentions multiple times this year, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bluejays upset their Cougar competitors. There doesn't appear to be any other teams in serious contention for a spot at State, but if Red Wing (who also has a head-to-head win over Waseca at St. Olaf) is able to have a great day and see a return-to-form from Grace Johnson (which will be critical if they hope to compete), they could make things a lot more interesting.
The individual battle here will feature some serious star power in the forms of the three South Suburban Conference rivals Lauren Peterson, Brianne Brewster, and Anna Fenske. Those three runners are all top-five finishers individually at State and just battled tough with each other at last week's conference championships. Peterson is ranked second in Class AA and has been virtually unbeatable this year when racing anyone not named Emily Covert or Tierney Wolfgram. Brewster has had one off-race this year in Lakeville, but been pretty much lights-out in all her other races. And Fenske, a returning NXN top-ten finisher, has been looking a lot stronger in recent races after a slower start to the season and appears nearly back to full power. However, Waseca's Ella Dufault will almost certainly try her hand at keeping up with the three older favorites, as she's managed to win three of her last four races (although she actually finished behind Luverne's Tenley Nelson at the Big South Championships, who was in the Small Schools division) and looked very impressive in doing so. Two other young stars who could make an impact near the front are Mayo's Hannah Lamaster and Owatonna's Carsyn Brady, while two seniors who have seen a ton of success in their high school careers hope to wrap up their final season with one more State appearance, namely Austin's Abigail Lewis and Red Wing's Grace Johnson.
(written by Mark Rice)