What To Look Forward To At The State Championships


GIRLS CLASS A

Season Best Projection: Perham (83 points), Winona Cotter (133 points), Stewartville (142 points), Annandale (161 points)

Season Average Projection: Perham (86 points), Stewartville (113 points), Annandale (140 points), Fairmont (156 points)

Top Individuals: Tierney Wolfgram (Math & Science Academy, 17:19), Grace Ping (Winona Cotter, 17:45), Lauren Ping (Winona Cotter, 18:21), Natasha Sortland (Zumbrota-Mazeppa/Kenyon-Wanamingo, 18:37), Tenley Nelson (Luverne, 18:42), Morgan Gehl (Murray County Central, 18:43), Ava Hill (Mesabi East, 18:45), Gracie Mallak (Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted, 18:49), Abby Orvis (Stewartville, 18:51), Kailee Malone (Stewartville, 18:58), Caitlin Covington (Perham, 18:59), Makenna Thurston (Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial/Nicollet, 18:59), Marissa Whitehead (Martin County West, 19:00), Kayla Christopherson (Austin Pacelli, 19:16)

The Skinny: After a year in Park City, Utah, Grace Ping seems poised to take home her second State XC title in her return. Despite not facing much competition since her runner-up finish at Griak, the US#12-ranked freshman and two-time NXN All-American already has a 17:45 effort at the State Meet course from the St. Olaf High School Showcase and is clearly the favorite. However, she'll have significantly more competition this year than when she won going away in 2015. Defending Class A State Champion Tierney Wolfgram stands as Ping's biggest challenge to the crown this fall. Other than a down race at Griak, she has been dominant all year, including an appearance on the Flo50 national rankings at #18. And with the three fastest 5k times in Class A this season, this race will probably be much closer than many might predict - there's a decent chance for a Wolfgram upset.

The next most-probable finisher is Lauren Ping, younger sister to Grace. She's had a strong rookie season, and in her debut at St. Olaf, she finished 3rd in 18:21. That time would have won the Class A State title in 2016. Another cross country rookie, 2017 Class A 800m champion Ava Hill, has collected a plethora of wins (often by huge margins) and multiple sub-19 efforts, so she's a fairly safe top five pick. And just a 7th grader, Natasha Sortland of Zumbrota-Mazeppa/Kenyon-Wanamingo (the girls 3A Champion from the Milaca Mega Meet) also appears to also have top five potential. Marissa Whitehead was the runner up last fall, but hasn't had the most consistent year, including a 3rd place performance in Section 2A. Makenna Thurston, the runner who was victorious out of that section, enters State on a roll after clocking her first career sub-19 time, reversing her loss to Whitehead at their conference meet. Thurston was 13th at State a year ago. Kayla Christopherson entered the season with two consecutive top eight finishes at State, but just finished a disappointing 7th in Section 1A. She'll look for a solid rebound on Saturday. Kira Sweeney and Morgan Gehl each secured a top ten finish last fall, while Caitlin Covington, Kailee Malone, and Morgan Arnold are also candidates for podium finishes.

The Class A girls race could be one of the most compelling storylines to watch out for this Saturday. On paper, Class A powerhouse Perham looks primed to avenge their two-point loss to Fairmont in 2016. Perham's biggest strength is their 1-5 depth (each at 20:03 or faster), a luxury that their top challenger lacks. However, with the domination of the Ping sisters and the emergence of a third lowstick in Morgan Arnold, Winona Cotter has a serious chance of pulling an upset. With the Pings and Arnold each ranked in the top eight in Class A, they could go 1-2-3 in team scoring. The Class A girls title usually requires a team to score roughly 80 points. That's likely the total amount that Cotter's 4th and 5th athlete need to score if they want a legitimate chance to win, meaning either one or both will need to PR again this Saturday. Perham has a significantly better 4-5, so to win they'll have to outweigh Cotter's top three. But thanks to their tighter spread, Perham still holds the edge over Cotter. The team with the best chance of nabbing the last podium spot is Stewartville. They own the second-best 1-2 punch in Class A with Kailee Malone and Abby Orvis, but their 5th runner is a ways back from their 1-4. Fairmont could also sneak into that spot, as they have a very enviable top three in Laura Thompson, Sarah Krumholz, and Iliana Ramon. Lastly, Annandale should also be in the running, as they have a legit lowstick in 12th-ranked Emma Fashant, and a much tighter pack than many of the other top teams in Class A.