One More Massive Day - Thursday Sections

2017 Minnesota XC Meet Previews

Oct 26, 2017

Section 5A Championships

Weather: High 40's mostly cloudy

BOYS

Season Best Projection: Mora (91 points), Saint Cloud Cathedral (106), Annandale (110), Heritage Christian Academy (129)

Season Average Projection: Mora (89), Annandale (108), Heritage Christian Academy (128), Saint Cloud Cathedral (128)

Top Individuals: Noah Bundrock (HLWW, 16:40), Christopher Groth (Annandale, 16:43), Cooper Lennox (Mora, 16:45), Jack Heun (Watertown-Mayer, 16:52), Michael Miller (Maple Lake, 17:00), Zackary Anderson (Spectrum, 17:02), Nels Trandahl (Rockford, 17:08), Luke Swanson (Northwest Homeschool, 17:09)

The Skinny: Both of our virtual meet projection systems put Mora at a slight advantage, and they have both the history and recent performance success to indicate that they should be considered the favorite. But their status is by no means surefire, as Saint Cloud Cathedral and Annandale make for a dangerously close competition. However, the real competition will probably be between those two teams, and the odds are that one is in and the other is out. The most important runner of the day may very-well be Annandale's fifth man - the more he can minimize the gap between himself and the runners ahead of him, the greater Annandale's chances against Cathedral's superior spread. In the individual competition, things are pretty wide open. Bundrock, Groth, and Lennox have all won multiple races this year, and they all have run very similar times. The next tier of runners is so close and so large that it wouldn't be much of a stretch to see some very unexpected athletes take a top-five spot. This may be the most uncertain individual battle of the day.

GIRLS

Season Best Projection: Annandale (62 points), Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (68), Maple Lake (105), Mora (116)

Season Average Projection: Annandale (56), Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (98), Providence Academy (101), Mora (108)

Top Individuals: Gracie Mallak (HLWW, 18:49), Erika Swanson (Northwest Homeschool, 19:23), Gwen Helgeson (HLWW, 19:50), Emma Fashant (Annandale, 19:51), Ava Cusciotta (Rockford, 19:57), Emma Kelly (Providence, 19:58), Augustus Demarais (Maple Lake, 20:05)

The Skinny: Based on both our projection systems, the very deep and tight-spread Annandale seems pretty secure in their spot as the team favorite. It gets much more interesting in that second spot, however. Any one of four teams could realistically claim it, and each team is structured quite differently. Howard Lake has an excellent top 4, but their fifth runner is well back. Mora's spread is borderline elite, but they don't have a true frontrunner. Maple Lake has pretty evenly-spread lineup, but that could make them susceptible to teams who pack-run better. And Providence has a great pack for their 2-5 runners, but their gap between their top runner and their second is uncomfortably large. In the end, it will almost certainly come down to whichever team has an athlete that steps it up the most, be it Howard Lake's 5th runner, Providence's second, Mora's first, or anyone from Maple Lake. As for the individual competition, while it looks like Gracie Mallak should have a secure hold on the top spot, she has also had issues with injuries and inconsistency this year, and has even run over 21 minutes twice (including last week at their Conference compeition), so it is by no means a sure thing. If Mallak falters, look for Erika Swanson to come in and swoop the top spot up.