St. Olaf Showcase
Location: St. Olaf College, Northfield
Weather: mostly sunny, upper 70's
BOYS
Virtual Meet Projections: Mounds View (83), Eastview (129), Perham (144), Maple Grove (159), Hopkins (209), Forest Lake (242)
Individuals to Watch: AJ Green (Eastview, 15:42), Emmet Anderson (Staples-Motley, 15:45), Finn Sokolowski (Mounds View, 15:51), Brandon O'Hara (Perham, 15:52), Carter Briggs (Winona, 15:53), Will Sacay (Mounds View, 15:59), Gabriel Mahlen (Eastview, 16:03), CJ Young (Maple Grove, 16:03), Charlie Caven (Maple Grove, 16:04), Max Charlsen (Forest Lake, 16:11), Harris Anderson (Math & Science Academy, 16:12), Nick Oak (Buffalo, 16:16), Elliott Mcarthur (Mounds View, 16:19), Colden Longley (Bloomington Jefferson, 16:22)
The Skinny: The 38-team-strong Showcase at St. Olaf is has become the symbolic start of the "big invitational" season in Minnesota, and with a plethora of ranked or nearly-ranked teams in the competition from both classes, it will provide one of the best early-season gauges of how teams currently compare to one another. Of course, as last season's runner-up finish from eventual NXN-qualifier Mounds View showed, the gauge can be imprecise at times. That said, between returning four runners from last year's NXN squad and some key improvements of athletes during the track season and over the summer, Mounds View should start their run to try to return to NXN with a win here, taking the virtual meet by 46 points even before taking into account the breakout track season by Matthew Miller. But perhaps even more interesting will be the team performance of Eastview. Last year, Eastview took 9th in this meet and AJ Green was 13th overall in his return to XC after a two-year absence, and both AJ and the team took 8th overall a few months later at State. But now AJ enters as the overall fastest returner in 15:42 and just put together a track season in the 800m that has made him into one of the highest-profile seniors in the nation, while Eastview returns five runners from their State team and are poised for an even bigger breakout, perhaps even enough to pose a serious challenge to Mounds View. Behind those two teams, there should be a great competition between the two-time defending Class A champions from Perham, the youthful Forest Lake squad that took 6th at State in 2018, and Maple Grove and Hopkins squads that both suffered near-misses in their last attempts to qualify for State. Wayzata will be sending athletes as well, but the core of their varsity team will be running Saturday at Marshfield instead.
Individually, while AJ Green will be the biggest name to watch, he's certainly not going to be unchallenged. The half-mile specialist will likely be joined at the front of the race by some of the best runners in Class A like Staples-Motley's Emmet Anderson, Perham's Brandon O'Hara, and MSA's Harris Anderson. Both O'Hara and Emmet Anderson already have excellent races under their belts so far this season, and they surely want to try to improve upon their respective 14th- and 12th-place finishes from last year, while Harris Anderson is actually the meet's highest-finishing returner by virtue of his outstanding 5th place performance. In Class AA, both Colden Longley and Nick Oak find themselves in the conversation for the win thanks to their outstanding track seasons that saw both of them turn into bona fide contenders for a State championship in November (and Oak also already has a solid win under his belt too, though that race was a 2-miler). Carter Briggs is another strong contender for a title, and he'll certainly want to do far better than his 32nd-place finish at this meet a year ago. Maple Grove's CJ Young and Charlie Caven could also find themselves in the mix along with Forest Lake's Max Charlsen, while the team favorites from Mounds View and Eastview have several athletes who have strong top-ten finish potential.
GIRLS
Virtual Meet Projections: Wayzata High School (32.5), Saint Michael-Albertville High School (49.5), Forest Lake Area High School (150), Lakeville South High School (174), Mounds View High School (243.5), Maple Grove High School (272.5), Perham High School (280.5)
Individuals to Watch: Emma Atkinson (Wayzata, 17:39), Brianne Brewster (Lakeville South, 17:49), Ali Weimer (STMA, 17:50), Abby Nechanicky (Wayzata, 18:09), Katie Sigerud (STMA, 18:10), Caroline Sassan (Wayzata, 18:13), Ella Dufault (18:13), Grace Johnson (Red Wing, 18:15), Natasha Sortland (ZM/KW, 18:30)
The Skinny: The last time Wayzata and St. Michael-Albertville matched up for a race at St. Olaf, the Knights pulled off a tremendous (though not an unforeseeable) upset and won a State Championship over the Trojans. STMA was unable, however, to fully carry that momentum to the Nike Heartland Regional, and took 3rd place to miss out on a trip to Portland, while Wayzata not only qualified, but took third in the entire competition. Between those two teams, just one runner has graduated, setting up this race to be a showdown between the two schools with strong NXN aspirations. Naturally, neither squad would ever admit to this race being anything other than an indicator of the current early-season shape of their athletes and that the races that matter are still months away, but I'm sure there's at least some pride attached to this matchup (which will next occur at the Roy Griak Invitational in one month) for both teams. The rest of the field should not be close to either powerhouse program, but there will certainly be several schools poised to make some waves of their own. Forest Lake and Lakeville South are both teams who return most of their runners from State-qualifying squads (though the presence and leadership of the graduated Regan Duffy will certainly be missed for Forest Lake), and according to the virtual meet, are firmly in the second tier of the competition, while the third tier of Mounds View, Maple Grove (who are section rivals) and Perham (the two-time Class A defending champions) hope to get the season started right as well.
Individually, the matchup promises to be exciting between some of Minnesota's best athletes, headed by two-time XC State top-three finisher Emma Atkinson of Wayzata. Atkinson has not yet managed to earn an individual championship in either track or XC yet, but her outstanding performances in recent years (including early-season races) have consistently put her in the conversation. Lakeville South's Brianne Brewster and STMA's Ali Weimer both also have several All-State honors and will likely challenge for the win, with Brewster in particular having proven over the past year that she is capable of closing massive ground with a devastating kick. Wayzata's Abby Nechanicky and Caroline Sassan both are likely going to be factors near the front along with their teammate Atkinson, as is STMA's Katie Sigerud coming off an outstanding track season in which she took 5th at State in the 1600m. In the next tier of runners, Waseca's Ella Dufault, Red Wing's Grace Johnson, and ZM/KW's Natasha Sortland will all be in the mis as well. Dufault and Johnson have both proven themselves to be capable of extraordinary performances (with Johnson in particular even coming in 2nd overall in this spring's Hamline Elite 3200m competition), but have struggled a bit with consistency. Sortland, meanwhile, enters as the top Class A runner in the field and has steadily improved since breaking into the spotlight as a seventh-grader. She will certainly be a strong candidate for a top-five finish.
ANOKA ABC INVITE | LQPV EARLY BIRD | NORTH SHORE CHALLENGE
LOYOLA CLEVELAND INVITE | PRINCETON INVITE | ST. OLAF SHOWCASE