From left to right: Emily Covert, Owen Hoeft, Cassidy Soli, and Emmet Anderson
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The St. Olaf High School Showcase and the MSHSL State Cross Country meet have a few things in common. They both bring together an elite field of teams and runners, they both compete on the same course at St. Olaf College, and a history of being one of the best cross country meets in Minnesota.
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Related: Meet Preview: 2022 St. Olaf High School Showcase | Virtual Meet: 2022 St. Olaf High School Showcase | Top St. Olaf High School Showcase 4K and 5K Times All-Time
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We at MileSplit Minnesota decided to look at whether success at the St. Olaf High School Showcase is an indicator of future success at the state meet that same year. The only criteria looked at was that years St. Olaf champion and where they finished at the state meet.
So without further ado here are the St. Olaf winners and their state finish:
St. Olaf Boys Winners and State Meet Finish that Same Year
Year | Winner | State Meet Finish |
2009 | Marty Joyce (Woodbury) | 2nd |
2010 | Cole O'Brien (Burnsville) | 2nd |
2011 | Cole O"Brien (Burnsville) | 5th |
2012 | Kevin Docherty (Cretin-Derham Hall) | 7th |
2013 | Jacob McDermott (Cretin-Derham Hall) | 4th |
2014 | Alec Anderson (Chaska) | 108th |
2015 | Owen Hoeft (Hopkins) | 10th |
2016 | Alex Miley (Maple Grove) | 5th |
2017 | Isaac Basten (Buffalo) | 11th |
2018 | Caleb Haugland (Minneapolis Washburn) | 32nd |
2019 | Emmet Anderson (Staples-Motley) | 2nd |
2021 | Sam Scott (Minneapolis Southwest) | 17th |
Surprisingly the boy's St. Olaf Showcase winners don't have any history of winning a state title the same year even though some of the best runners in state history have won the showcase. Eight of the twelve winners have gone onto top ten finishes at state but none of them have ever won the state title that same year. The average place at state here is 17th overall, or 8th if you discount Anderson's place.
So if you're a boy runner at the showcase, do you even want to win the race if you're gunning for the state title? Can this year's winner break the curse? The girls on the other hand are a different story.
St. Olaf Girls Winners and State Meet Finish that Same Year
Year | Winner | State Meet Finish |
2009 | Cassidy Soli (Champlin Park) | 9th |
2010 | Cassidy Soli (Champlin Park) | 106th |
2011 | Clare Flanagan (Blake) | 1st |
2012 | Maria Hauger (Shakopee) | 1st |
2013 | Bailey Ness (East Ridge) | 21st |
2014 | Tess Misgen (Shakopee) | 3rd |
2015 | Jasmyn Armstrong (Red Wing) | 26th |
2016 | Jaycie Thomsen (Wayzata) | 13th |
2017 | Grace Ping (Cotter) | 3rd |
2018 | Emily Covert (Minneapolis Washburn) | 1st |
2019 | Abbey Nechanicky (Wayzata) | 2nd |
2021 | Ali Weimer (STMA) | 1st |
The girl's St. Olaf Showcase winner has gone on to win the state title that same year four times or 33% of the time since the meets inception. This includes two of the last three winners in Emily Covert and Ali Weimer. Nechanicky has a chance to make up for her 2nd place finish in 2019 during her senior season this year.
The average state meet finish for the St. Olaf winner has been 15th for the girls with Soli's 2010 finish and 6th without her 2010 finish. The girls have clearly had much more translation of success from St. Olaf Showcase winners to state champions.
Who might add to their legacy or to the boys curse this year?
See also: