St. Olaf Success an Indicator of State Meet Success?


From left to right: Emily Covert, Owen Hoeft, Cassidy Soli, and Emmet Anderson

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The St. Olaf High School Showcase and the MSHSL State Cross Country meet have a few things in common. They both bring together an elite field of teams and runners, they both compete on the same course at St. Olaf College, and a history of being one of the best cross country meets in Minnesota. 

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Related: Meet Preview: 2022 St. Olaf High School Showcase | Virtual Meet: 2022 St. Olaf High School Showcase | Top St. Olaf High School Showcase 4K and 5K Times All-Time

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We at MileSplit Minnesota decided to look at whether success at the St. Olaf High School Showcase is an indicator of future success at the state meet that same year. The only criteria looked at was that years St. Olaf champion and where they finished at the state meet.

So without further ado here are the St. Olaf winners and their state finish: 

St. Olaf Boys Winners and State Meet Finish that Same Year

YearWinnerState Meet Finish
2009Marty Joyce (Woodbury)2nd
2010Cole O'Brien (Burnsville)2nd
2011Cole O"Brien (Burnsville)5th
2012Kevin Docherty (Cretin-Derham Hall)7th
2013Jacob McDermott (Cretin-Derham Hall)4th
2014Alec Anderson (Chaska)108th
2015Owen Hoeft (Hopkins)10th
2016Alex Miley (Maple Grove)5th
2017Isaac Basten (Buffalo)11th
2018Caleb Haugland (Minneapolis Washburn)32nd
2019Emmet Anderson (Staples-Motley)2nd
2021Sam Scott (Minneapolis Southwest)17th

Surprisingly the boy's St. Olaf Showcase winners don't have any history of winning a state title the same year even though some of the best runners in state history have won the showcase. Eight of the twelve winners have gone onto top ten finishes at state but none of them have ever won the state title that same year. The average place at state here is 17th overall, or 8th if you discount Anderson's place. 

So if you're a boy runner at the showcase, do you even want to win the race if you're gunning for the state title? Can this year's winner break the curse? The girls on the other hand are a different story. 

St. Olaf Girls Winners and State Meet Finish that Same Year

YearWinnerState Meet Finish
2009Cassidy Soli (Champlin Park)9th
2010Cassidy Soli (Champlin Park)106th
2011Clare Flanagan (Blake)1st
2012Maria Hauger (Shakopee)1st
2013Bailey Ness (East Ridge)21st
2014Tess Misgen (Shakopee)3rd
2015Jasmyn Armstrong (Red Wing)26th
2016Jaycie Thomsen (Wayzata)13th
2017Grace Ping (Cotter)3rd
2018Emily Covert (Minneapolis Washburn)1st
2019Abbey Nechanicky (Wayzata)2nd
2021Ali Weimer (STMA)1st

The girl's St. Olaf Showcase winner has gone on to win the state title that same year four times or 33% of the time since the meets inception. This includes two of the last three winners in Emily Covert and Ali Weimer. Nechanicky has a chance to make up for her 2nd place finish in 2019 during her senior season this year. 

The average state meet finish for the St. Olaf winner has been 15th for the girls with Soli's 2010 finish and 6th without her 2010 finish. The girls have clearly had much more translation of success from St. Olaf Showcase winners to state champions. 

Who might add to their legacy or to the boys curse this year?

See also: