Meet Previews: Conference Championships Week 2


Suburban East Conference Championships

Boys

Virtual Meet Results: Stillwater (63), Mounds View (64), Roseville (75), White Bear Lake (94), Forest Lake (137), East Ridge (156), Woodbury (193)

Top Individuals: Elliott McArthur (15:40.80), Daniel Vanacker (15:44.60), James Olson (15:48.90), Ernest Mattson (16:00.80), Luke Williams (16:11.30), William Skelly (16:14.60)

The Skinny: In one of the closest matchups of the week, our virtual projections have Stillwater winning by one point and the top three separated by just 12 points. The top three teams recently met at the Alexandria Lions Meet of Champions where Mounds View finished 1st, Roseville 2nd, and Stillwater 6th. At the Milaca Mega Meet it was switched around with Roseville beating Mounds View. Stillwater has yet to beat either of those teams, but due to their depth and small split, they can be a contender. 

In probably the best boys match-up of the week, Elliott McArthur, Daniel Vanacker, and James Olson will all face off against each other for the Suburban East title. They all have season average 5K times comparable to each other this season as seen below:

None of the three boys have faced each other all at the same meet, but McArthur beat Vanacker at the St. Olaf High School Showcase, and McArthur also beat Olson at the Alexandria Lions Meet of Champions. Going by those metrics, McArthur appears to be the favorite, but it should be a close race between the three boys and they all have the potential to win this race. 

By the season-best time, this match-up pits this matchup pits three of the top eleven runners in the state against each other. 

Girls

Virtual Meet Results: Mounds View (68), Stillwater (79), Forest Lake (93), Roseville (101), East Ridge (108), Woodbury (113), Irondale (139)

Top Individuals: Halle Mestery (18:08), Norah Hushagen (18:34.90), Brooke Elfert (18:56.70), Elizabeth VanLoon (18:59.90), Taylor Isabel (19:08.70), Ellie Hanowski (19:36.50)

The Skinny: The only time the top two projected teams in Mounds View and Stillwater have faced off this season was at the Alexandria Lions Meet of Champions where Mounds View finished 6th and Stillwater finished in 8th. Mounds View beat Stillwater by 22 seconds, though their average was only 5 seconds faster. The big difference in points is mainly due to the fifth runners of each team, where Mounds View outscores Stillwater by 8 points there. 

Halle Mestery is projected to run away with the meet with her average 5K time of 18:15.40 that is faster than any girl's seasonal best time in the field. She has won three of the four meets she has run this season, and if how she has run this season is any indication, expect there to be a gap between her and the runner-up. 

The top returner from last year's conference meet is Norah Hushagen, who was the runner-up behind Analee Weaver with a time of 18:39. She recently ran her best race of the year at the STMA Invite with a time of 18:34.90, but will have to run closer to her PR of 17:52 if she wants to take home the conference title of Mestery.