Class A Boys
Season Best Projections: Perham (59), West Central Area (127.5), East Grand Forks (159), Lac qui Parle Valley/Dawson-Boyd (177), Saint James (185), Mankato Loyola/Cleveland (196), Staples-Motley (200)
Season Average Projections: Perham (67), West Central Area (121), Saint James (169), Lac qui Parle Valley/Dawson-Boyd (173), East Grand Forks (174), Nova Classical Academy (181), Staples-Motley (186)
Top Individuals: Emmet Anderson (Staples-Motley, 15:45), Geno Uhrbom (GNK, 15:47), Brandon O'Hara (Perham, 15:52), Cole Nowacki (East Grand Forks, 16:00), Jacob Bright (West Central Area, 16:02), Cooper Lennox (Mora, 16:04), Cameron Stocke (Virginia, 16:05), Zach Haire (Breckenridge/Wahpeton, 16:07), Clayton Anderson (Perham, 16:10), Harris Anderson (Math & Science Academy, 16:12), Drew Hastings (Belle Plaine, 16:14), Tyson Mahar (East Grand Forks, 16:15), Lane Schwarz (LeSueur-Henderson, 16:17), Grant Strukel (Blue Earth Area, 16:18), Luke Olson (Ely, 16:20), Mitch Johnstone (Loyola/Cleveland, 16:23)
The Skinny: The Class A boys individual battle at this year's State Championships is without a doubt one of the more youthful ones in recent memory. Not only are both of the race's biggest favorites just sophomores, but a staggering 18 of the 21 fastest runners coming into this race (based on season best times) are non-seniors, so the results of this year's race could reverberate through the next several seasons just as strongly as this year. In particular, the two athletes at the top will see a lot of each other before they graduate. Geno Uhrbom took third at last year's State Championships as just a freshman, and in general has looked even stronger this year. He does have one second-place finish to his name at the Lucky Lindy Invitational against Hopkins' Eli Hoeft, but other than that race, he has comfortably won each everything else. Meanwhile, Emmet Anderson's freshman year culminated with a sixth-place finish at State, and he also appears to be even stronger with three races that have dipped under 16 minutes this year and just two non-first-place finishes. Neither runner has faced each other yet this year, and they have not faces many common opponents, so it is difficult to say who has an edge at the moment. However Uhrbom's experience running at the State level is extensive beyond his years, already owning four All-State honors and competing in his eighth State race between track and cross country, so that experience might provide a slight edge.
Uhrbom and Anderson certainly will not be unchallenged, however. Most of the season, Emmet has been ranked third in Class A while another Anderson has occupied the second spot. Harris Anderson's season has been highlighted by very impressive runs at the St. Olaf Showcase and the Roy Griak Invitational, but his status for State is up in the air as he has battled knee issues in the past few weeks, only taking third at his Section meet. However, if his knees are feeling good on Saturday, the Math & Science junior could easily find himself challenging for a championship. So too could Brandon O'Hara, who has battled tough with many of Class A and Class AA's top runners throughout the year and has the third-best season average in the field behind Uhrbom and Emmet Anderson. Cooper Lennox, the 8th-place finisher last year, will also be a serious challenger on the heels of the best race of his career so far, a 16:04 effort to win the Section 5A Championship, his ninth win in eleven races. Another top competetor, and one of the most exciting runners in the field, is Virgina's Cameron Stocke. He is as of now the fastest 8th grader in the nation, and has battled Geno Uhrbom tough on four occasions this year, never finishing below third place in a race, and even beating Cooper Lennox at Milaca. Jacob Bright, Cole Nowacki, Zach Haire, and Drew Hastings are just a few of the other runners capable of challenging for a spot in the top ten, as this field of Class A runners is as deep as it is young.
The team battle here is about as close to a sure thing as we're going to get in any of these four races on Saturday. Perham High School will be gunning for their seventh State Championship since 2006 after a regular season that has produced results comparable to some of the best teams in Class AA, and have not yet seen a Class A team truly come close to them in meet results. Led by O'Hara and senior Clayton Anderson, Perham has five runners who have run 16:48 or better in 2018, and all five runners have averaged 17:29 or better. The only team that has come remotely close to the types of numbers Perham has seen this year is the Jacob Bright-led West Central Area squad, whom they have beaten head-to-head three times. However, it would not be wise to give Perham the title quite yet, as their best race (and most recent) against Perham came at the Heart Of Lakes Conference Championships where they were just 8 points behind Perham's total of 33. In fact, through four runners, West Central Area has proven themselves to be just as formidable as Perham. However, if West Central Area wants to make a serious run to beat Perham, they will need their fifth runner to make up a lot of ground, as he is usually about 30 seconds behind Perham's fifth. But considering Perham's advantage on paper in conjunction with their history (they have never finished lower than 4th place at the State Championships since 2002, and have finished lowed than second just three times), the race does appear to be their's to lose.
The battle behind those two teams will be a very intense one, however. Perhaps the most notable team in that pack is Staples-Motley, who have had an excellent season and worked their way up to third in the polls. Strangely, however, they do not appear to fare well in either virtual meet projection, coming in seventh in both meets despite solid head-to-head wins over schools like Minnehaha, East Grand Forks, and LQPVDB. However, the Cardinals should not be too worried about that projection, (which appears to be the result of a #3 runner that is a bit further back than their closest rivals), and last year they outperformed the projections to achieve a tenth-place finish, and could similarly outperform them again. One teams that the virtual meets do appear to favor is the Green Wave of East Grand Forks. The tenth-ranked team in structured similar to West Cenral Area with four runners that can compete with anyone before dropping off a big to their fifth runner. Their placement will depend on that fifth runner, and if he can break the 18-minute barrier and the rest of the top four run well, EGF could easily find themselves on the podium. So too could Saint James, who have looked very strong in recent weeks and could be mirroring their dramatic rise last year when they stole a runner-up finish at State against a Loyola/Cleveland team they had yet to beat after nearly their whole team stepped up to run PRs. Mora is another team to watch as it seems like every passing race their higher-scoring runners move just a bit closer to the front of the pack. And finally, returning fourth-place finisher Lac qui Parle Valley/Dawson-Boyd has an early-season head-to-head win over West Central Area and some dominating wins this year and will have a great shot at the podium if frontrunners Mikey Kvall and Zeke Sather can both get close to the top fifteen individuals. Mankato Loyola/ Cleveland, Nova Classical Academy, and Minnehaha Academy will all have great potential for top-five finishes too, as could North Shore, as they have consistently (both this year and last) outperformed their projections.
(written by Mark Rice)