Class A Girls
Season Best Projections: Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (94), Perham (110), Luverne (167), West Central Area (169.5), Staples-Motley (170), Cotter (171)
Season Average Projections: Perham (104), Cotter (141), Luverne (150), West Central Area (154), Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (169)
Top Individuals: Tierney Wolfgram (Math & Science Academy, 17:06), Morgan Gehl (Murray County Central/Fulda, 17:48), Grace Ping (Cotter, 17:49), Lauren Ping (Cotter, 18:09), Tenley Nelson (Luverne, 18:13), Natasha Sortland (ZMKW, 18:30), Grace Drietz (Canby/Minneota, 18:32), Katherine Geist (Crookston, 18:40), Ava Hill (Mesabi East, 18:44), Morgan Arnold (Cotter, 18:46), Jacey Majerus (Lake City, 18:52), Makenna Thurston (Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial/Nicollet, 19:01), Gracie Mallak (Howard Lake-Waverly-Winstead, 19:01), Regan Feit (Luverne, 19:03), Madeline Kelly (Providence Academy, 19:13)
The Skinny: Eleven girls have season bests 5000m times under 19 minutes in 2018, which proves the depth that this year's group of Class A girls has brought. Headlining that field is Tierney Wolfgram, the two-time defending champion and current top-ranked runner in Class A. Although she surprised everyone and ran a 2:40 marathon less than a month ago, she came off of it well and ran an excellent race at her section meet, clocking 17:29 and winning by over two minutes. The only question is if she has returned strong enough to hold off the Ping sisters. Wolfgram beat both Grace and Lauren Ping by a large margin at their only matchup this season, the Roy Griak Invitational, although bad starts from both Cotter stars forced them to work hard playing catch-up through first portion of the race. This could mean that they are more evenly matched than their earlier performances prove. Grace and Lauren have been trading off the dominance this season, but most recently Grace has been the better of the two, having won both the conference and section titles.
The race will likely be fast from the gun which could play in Wolfgram's favor as she has the faster personal best and consistently been dropping great times. But while all three girls have seen some excellent competition this year, their greatest competitor comes in as a powerful wild card. Morgan Gehl is as of yet undefeated this year and owns the second-best season best in the field of 17:48. Gehl was fourth last year and will likely be running with the top group, but it is hard to tell because she has not raced anyone near her talent this season besides possibly Tenley Nelson. But it would not be a huge surprise if Gehl is able to hold on to the top three girls through the whole race and maybe even finish ahead of some of them. The next pack of runners battling for a podium spot will include several other girls who have consistantly delivered all season long. Tenley Nelson has run 18:35 or better a total of six times, Katherine Geist is undefeated this year, Ava Hill dominated northern Minnesota the past two years, Natasha Sorthland and averaged a time of 18:53, and some other huge breakout runners include Grace Drietz and Morgan Arnold.
The team race is all over the place in the virtual meet, but if last year is any indication, it's likely going to come down to just a few points between Perham and Cotter. In both the season best and season average team projections, Perham has Cotter beat but at their only meet up this season, the Roy Griak Invitational, Cotter beat Perham 498 to 706 points. Cotter has three in the top ten rankings whereas Perham might have their top runner cross in the 20s. Perham has a closer pack of five runners while Cotter's fifth runner currently sits around 22 and a half minutes. Of course, in a big meet like this where their first three runners could combine for ten points or fewer, they can more easily absorb a higher score from their back-half runners, but if Cotter is to win, they will need big races from their fourth and fifth runners like they did last year and came within one point of winning. If the two could combine for around 70 points, it would be likely that Cotter would solidify a state title. Meanwhile, Perham has an excellent chance of putting all five of their top runners under 20 minutes, which would be the first time a Class A team did that since the race distance was moved up to 5K in 2015.
However, it's certainly possible for another team to make a challenge for either Perham or Cotter. Most notably, Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted is actually ranked ahead of both Perham and Cotter by a decent margin based on season best times. Howard Lake has really come on strong late in the season and on several meets by very impressive margins, though it's possible their virtual meet projection is influenced by two quick meets they ran at Litchfield and the Central Minnesota Conference Championships. But HLWW will likely be racing for the third place finish against Luverne, whom they have yet to race against this season. Another competitor that could challenge for the third place spot is Lake City, who qualified for State by upsetting Stewartville at the Section 1A Championships - Stewartville was ranked fifth in the state and Lake City was ranked seventh heading into the week. Stewartville not being in the race opens up the field more to teams such as Belle Plaine, Lac qui Parle Valley/Dawson-Boyd, and Staples-Motley who are ranked in the top ten and could really sneak in a big performance, and West Central Area is another team whom the virtual meets really favor. And while they may not be a serious contender for a podium spot, or maybe even a top-ten finish, congratulations are due for Glencoe-Silver Lake, who put everything together at the right time to earn an exciting surprise qualification out of Section 2A.