Class AA Boys
Season Best Projection: Mounds View (56), Wayzata (113), Edina (116), Red Wing (128), Stillwater (157)
Season Average Projection: Mounds View (59), Edina (89), Stillwater (123), Red Wing (127), Wayzata (132)
Top Individuals: Addison Stansbury (Stillwater, 15:16), Max Manley (Edina, 15:26), Andrew Brandt (Wayzata, 15:27), Acer Iverson (Roseville, 15:27), Austin Streit (Mounds View, 15:27), Nicholas Scheller (Chanhassen, 15:30), Lukas Hessini (Mounds View, 15:34), Carter Knaus (St. Michael-Albertville, 15:35), Luke Labatte (Rosemount, 15:37), Caleb Haugland (Minneapolis Washburn, 15:40), Isaac Basten (Buffalo, 15:41), Eli Hoeft (Hopkins, 15:43), Zach Johnson (Moorhead, 15:46), Willem Gokemeijer (Edina, 15:48)
The Skinny: Max Manley of Edina will toe the line as the presumptive favorite. Other than an early season loss to Iowan State Champion Tim Sindt, Manley has put together a spotless campaign and beaten every other runner he's faced. That's not to say that the race will not be close, as many of his victories have come down to the wire. Yet on multiple occasions, Manley has showed off his devastating finishing ability that no Minnesotan has been able to match this fall - in fact, five of his races have been decided by fewer than ten seconds, and three have been less than five seconds. Andrew Brandt came dangerously close to pulling an upset at sections, coming up just a second short. Brandt's finishing ability has also been put on display throughout the year, including a miraculous comeback win at the Metro Invitational. On a strong day, Brandt could kick his way to the title. Last season, Acer Iverson entered State undefeated before finishing as the runner-up to Khalid Hussein. He's had a somewhat up and down season, but one thing's for certain: at his best, he's certainly one Minnesota's best runners. At the Roy Griak Invitational, Iverson did almost all of the pacesetting up front before finishing a close second to Manley. And after a disappointing fourth place finish at Alexandria, Iverson stormed back to defend his conference title in convincing fashion, over 40 in front of Addison Stansbury. However, Stansbury has collected two signature wins in October that also make him a candidate for the title: a breakthrough victory at Alexandria over many of the top Class AA runners, and a stunning 15:16 at the Section 4AA meet. The latter performance gave him the fastest time in the state so far.
The State champion will likely come from one of the aforementioned four, but a variety of others should factor into the race. Section 2AA stars Nick Scheller and Isaac Basten have been consistent performers and will be podium candidates. Caleb Haugland won the St. Olaf Showcase on this course, and was third behind Manley and Brandt at Sections. Luke Labatte also who owns one of the best kicks in the field, which he displayed at State last year when he finished third at State. He finished third at State in 2017. Mounds View's duo of Austin Streit and Lukas Hessini will look for top ten finishes, along with Carter Knaus, who finished hot on the two Mustangs' trail at the Section 5AA meet. Willem Gokemeijer, Oliver Paleen, Eli Hoeft, and Jake Derouin should also all finish up with the top group. Finn Sokolowski, Zach Johnson and Weston Wyatt have flown a bit under the radar, and AJ Green has had a phenomenal return to the grass. And Charlie Babcock, Meti Omod, Carter Briggs, Dawson Strom, and Will Sacay have each broken 16:00 on the year. With all these names, it should be an extremely close and deep individual battle, making the podium and All-State finishers unpredictable.
For the majority of the year, the Edina boys held the top ranking in Minnesota. Their spot at the top was reinforced by impressive wins at Milaca and Griak. Then Wayzata came on strong as October began, surprising with closely contested wins at their conference and section meet. Yet it's possible neither of these Lake Conference powers will enter as the favorite on Saturday, thanks to a late season resurgence of the Mounds View boys. Already owning one of the best 1-2 punch on the boys side, the major improvement of their 3-5 has given them the most stacked lineup on paper. Finn Sokolowski came through big at the Suburban East Conference Championships, shattering 16:00 to finish fourth overall. At sections, Will Sacay finally had the breakout race he had been looking for, breaking 16:00 for the first time and giving the Mustangs four of the top five finishers. Not far behind was their fifth, Alec Nelson, in 16:05. Nelson also set a huge PR, giving Mounds View a dominating win in just 21 points. Though Nelson and Sacay didn't run quite as fast at their conference meet, Mounds View still halved the score of a quality Stillwater team, winning 34 to 68. Those two performances indicate that Mounds View will be a major force to be reckoned with, and they come out on top in both virtual meets by fairly comfortable margins. They did lose to Edina by seven points at the Milaca Mega Meet, but that was largely due to a gap between their fourth and fifth that has shrunk to almost nothing in the past month.
However, one thing Edina and Wayzata have in their favor is depth, as an off day by one or more of Mounds View's top five could prove costly. Wayzata seems to have a ton of potential, as they upset Edina at conference without either Grant Price and Luke Sharpe, two members of their top three. Both of those runners returned for sections, and if Price regains his peak form, the Trojans will have yet another major weapon at their disposal. Wayzata is also known for peaking late in the season, and their conference and section titles are strong indicators that they may be surging at just the right time to take the win. Edina arguably has an even better dynamic duo than Mounds View in Max Manley and Willem Gokemeijer. If those two each finish in the top ten, it will be very difficult for any other team to match them up front. With solid support behind those two, the Hornets could be primed to earn the team crown on Saturday. In addition, other than Milaca, neither the Trojans or the Hornets have not run on a course as fast as Section 5AA (and arguably the Suburban East Conference), which could be why the virtual meets are so much in Mounds View's favor. Meanwhile, one more team that will hope to challenge for a top spot is Red Wing, who beat Mounds View back in August by 50 points. However, Tucker Wallin did not race at sections, and they'll need him to be able compete for a top finish. Buffalo has also looked strong, especially with the emergence of Brett Hanson as an All-State candidate, but they'll need to cut down the gap to Isaac Basten a lot to challenge for the podium. St. Paul Highland Park made State for the first time in 45 years and will also make a run for the top five. Finally, Stillwater always brings a strong squad, and should also look for a top-five performance. The Ponies defeated the Scots at sections by 24 points. And lastly, some love for the East Ridge boys, who despite flying well under the radar and finishing just sixth in their conference, qualified for State by putting their top five under 17:00.
(written by Sam O'Donnell-Hoff)