TEAMS TO WATCH: Ely, Greenway/Nashwauk-Keewatin, Proctor, Pequot Lakes
INDIVIDUALS TO WATCH: Geno Uhrbom (GNK, 15:41.9), Cameron Stocke (Virginia, 16:07.3), Luke Olson (Ely, 16:30.0), Tucker Ringhand (Crosby-Ironton, 16:41.1), Aaron Nelson (Mountain Iron-Buhl, 16:57.9), Jeffrey Kayfes (Mountain Iron-Buhl, 16:58.6), Ethan Johnson (Pequot Lakes, 17:02.3), James Schwinghamer (Ely, 17:03.7), Greg Peterson (GNK, 17:06), Cameron Dickey (Cromwell-Wright, 17:08.4)
THE SKINNY: 7A appears to be a battle between MNXCCAA no. 7 Greenway/Nashwauk-Keewatin and no. 9 Ely for the top two spots. While the teams from Proctor and Pequot Lakes both have potential for a breakthrough day, it appears the reigning section champs from GNK should be the favorites to claim one of the two state qualifying spots and reach the state finals for the fifth straight year. Ely projects as the favorite based on season bests but GNK has averaged better performances throughout the year. Ely has not reached state as a team since 2016 and was third last year in section 7A. When both teams produce their best result, Ely appears to have an advantage in the final two scoring spots but GNK has had more consistent performances from those two positions giving them an edge when using a season average. GNK did finish ahead of Ely in their only meeting this season at International Falls in early October.
Since GNK junior Geno Uhrbom arrived in varsity competition in 2015 as a seventh grader he has finished no lower than third at the 7A meet, winning the previous two section titles and leading his team to section championships last season and in 2016. Last year he claimed the class A distance triple-crown, winning state titles in XC and the 1600 & 3200m track titles. While his placements have not been as dominant this season, Uhrbom has run under 16 minutes three times and come within 15 seconds of his career PR twice this season. Verses his closest competitors Virginia freshman Cameron Stocke and Ely senior Luke Olson he has won all but three head to head meetings the last two seasons. Stocke has produced a faster season best than Olson but Ely's top runner was cautious early in the season and ran several meets as workouts with teammates and that slows his season average. Head to head Stocke has bettered Olson this season in three of four meetings but most recently, the elder runner bested Stocke by over 30 seconds at Swain. Uhrbom, Olson and Stocke come in ranked 4-5-10 in the state its foresable these three could all end up all-state next weekend. Other names to watch for state qualifying include the Mountain Iron-Buhl sophomore pairing of Aaron Nelson and Jeffrey Kayfes along with Crosby-Ironton senior Tucker Ringland. Also of import is the performance of Ely senior James Schwinghamer and GNK senior Greg Peterson as both look to be top ten level and will play key scoring roles in the team race as the no. 2 man for their respective squads.
TEAMS TO WATCH: Pequot Lakes, Proctor, Mesabi East, Ely, North Shore
INDIVIDUALS TO WATCH: Calia Chaney (Pequot Lakes, 18:45.6), Ava Hill (Mesabi East, 18:57.5), Carly Chaney (Pequot Lakes, 19:01.5), Rian Zutter (Pequot Lakes, 19:12.7), Keegan McAuliffe (Marshall School, 19:14.4), Alex Wercinski (Virginia, 19:59.2), Liz Nelson (Moutain Iron-Buhl, 20:07.1), Lizzy Harnell (Proctor, 20:14.4), Lydia Skelton (Mesabi East, 20:18.2), Emaleigh Olesiak (Cromwell-Wright, 20:22.9)
THE SKINNY: The data on season bests and season averages say that no. 9 ranked Pequot Lakes and Proctor are the favorites in 7A. Pequot has a decisive advantage in both areas with the strength of three potential runners in the top five and all five in the top 30. Proctor does not appear to have at top three on par to stay with Pequot Lakes but gains an edge over Mesabi East in the fourth and fifth spots despite possibly not having a second athlete in the top ten. The Giants have an advantage in season best team average but their split appears too large to carry them into the top two spots. If they can gain trip ten or more points in the final spots they do have front runners that give them the pace needed to compete for a state berth.
Mesabi East senior Ava Hill has won the last two 7A titles and gone on to all-state honors both years. This year she will face a new challenge from Pequot Lakes eighth grader Calia Chaney who's team is new to the section. Chaney has a better season best in 2019 and averaged over 20 seconds faster than Hill over the course of the season. However the two have only faced off twice in their careers with Hill posting decisive victories. Chaney was fourth in section 8A a year ago before running 32nd at state. Another interesting name to track is Duluth Marshall School sophomore Keegan McAuliffe who has the fifth best season result but averaged over 15 second faster numbers than Hill over the course six 5k events this year. It is her first year of cross country so her season culminating results remain an unknown but influential part of section 7A individual state qualifications. Other key individuals wil be the no. 2 & 3 athletes from Pequot Lakes sophomore Carly Chaney and eighth grader Rian Zutter who both figure among the section's fastest and most consistent runners and when at their best will make Pequot dominate in 7A and potentially top ten quality at state. Also follow Proctor no. 1 runner seventh grader Lizzy Harnel in her first section meetl and Mesabi East no. 2 Lydia Skleton who was fifth in 7A last year and 51st at state. Both will be influential who earns the second team state meet berth.