PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 5A Championships
Location: Spring Brook Golf Course, Mora
Weather: Mid-40's, 70% chance of rain
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Mora (84), Annandale (101), Heritage Christian Academy (103), Saint Cloud Cathedral (158), Northwest Nighthawks (162)
Season Average Projection: Mora (76), Saint Cloud Cathedral (125), Heritage Christian Academy (141), Annandale (155), Spectrum (162)
Top Individuals: Cooper Lennox (Mora, 16:27), Luke Swanson (Northwest, 16:33), Nels Trandahl (Rockford, 16:42), Evan Lee (Lester Prairie/Mayer Lutheran, 16:42), Jared Nordstrom (Heritage, 16:43), Michael Miller (Maple Lake, 16:50), Tommy Ryan (Pine City, 16:56), Cedric Lefave (Hinckley-Finlayson, 17:01), Payton Lund (Annandale, 17:03), Travis Miller (Heritage, 17:05)
The Skinny: Section 5A is without a doubt one of the most interesting sections to keep an eye on. Not that the status of ninth-ranked Mora as the favorite is in much question, as they have handily beaten every section opponent they have seen this year with the exception of a somewhat shocking one-point loss to Cathedral in the first meet of the season nearly two full months ago. As has been a bit of a hallmark for the team who's qualified for State every single season since 2006, and is not that far removed from winning three straight State Championships, Mora has gotten stronger and deeper seemingly with every meet this year, and their streak does not appear to be in jeopardy. But things get really murky when it comes to the teams behind them. Last year, Heritage Christian Academy earned a somewhat shocking berth into the State Championships, a first in the school's history. They beat the more traditional XC powerhouses Annandale by four points and Cathedral by six points, and those are the three teams that are tied up in the uncertainty this year. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that the only meet in which any of those three teams faced each other was the Pierz Pioneer Stampede where Annandale beat Heritage by just two points and Saint Cloud Cathedral did not run their varsity team (but their JV team did very well in the varsity race). And since that meet took place over a month ago, and both Annandale and Heritage have appeared to improve a lot since then, it's hard to take much from that result. Analyzing the virtual meets is also tricky, as Cathedral has never really run on a particularly fast course and their runners have remained fairly steady and consistent the whole season, neither of which is true for Heritage and Annandale (which is why Cathedral is favored in the season average projection and Annandale and Heritage are better off in the season-best projection). One thing that is for sure, however, is that if Heritage wants to make the return trip to State, all five of their top runners need to have a good day because there is a significant drop-off to their sixth runner (over two minutes). Both Annandale and Cathedral have considerably better depth, and in fact Cathedral has one of the best JV squads of any team in Class A.
The individual battle pretty much just comes down to fifth-ranked Cooper Lennox and whether or not anyone can keep up with him the full race. Lennox is the winner of all but two of his races this year and the only Class A runners he has lost to this year are Geno Uhrbom, Brandon O'Hara, and Cameron Stocke, and he just took his revenge on Stocke at Swain by holding him off with a great kick at the end of the Class A race (where he also actually ran his season-best time on a pretty tough course). Lennox has historically been a runner that does not win races by large margins, tending to put forth enough effort to win without overly taxing himself, resulting in most of his best races coming in big, high-profile fields like last year's state championships. But for as big a favorite as Lennox is, he'll certainly have his challengers in the form of runners like Luke Swanson, Tommy Ryan, Evan Lee, and Jared Nordstrom. Swanson in particular is an exciting runner to watch as he's just a freshman and has already run 17 minutes or better four times this season, though he was nearly 30 seconds behind Lennox in their only head-to-head matchup over a month ago. Tommy Ryan, meanwhile, has faced Lennox 5 times and come with 12 seconds and 18 seconds of him the past month, though sandwiched between those two races is a Swain meet where he was bested by nearly a minute. Lee is an interesting runner to watch as he has yet to win a race, but has been close to winning many times, never finishing outside the top six runners this season, while Nordstrom could have turned a corner last week in his conference-winning effort in which he broke 17 minutes for the first time ever (and he has looked better and better every race this year).
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (33), Maple Lake (101), Providence Academy (114), Mora (139), Annandale (153)
Season Average Projection: Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (64), Providence Academy (78), Mora (104), Annandale (166), Rockford (167), Maple Lake (170)*
Top Individuals: Gracie Mallak (HLWW, 19:01), Erika Swanson (Northwest, 19:08), Emma Fashant (Annandale, 19:24), Madeline Kelly (Providence, 19:32), Sophie Pribyl (Maple Lake, 19:33), Gwen Helgeson (HLWW, 19:38), Erin Brabec (HLWW, 19:42), Alaina Steele (Pine City, 19:43), Brooke Baumann (HLWW, 19:46), Katelyn Routhier (HLWW, 19:49)
The Skinny: Like the boys competition, the girls side appears to have a solid favorite followed with a lot of intrigue in the team competition. With several outstanding performances in the past few weeks, fifth-ranked Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted has emerged as not just a likely state qualifier, but a legitimate podium contender - they boast five runners who have broken 20 minutes this season, and Gracie Mallak's conference championship race appeared to be a return to form for the All-State runner. HLWW's emergence has been gradual over the course of the season, but dramatic in comparing where they are now to where they were. They've gone from beating eighth-ranked Maple Lake by 9 points in August to beating them by 51 and 37 later on. Against sixth-ranked Belle Plaine, they lost by 12 points on September 6th, then beat them by 32 on September 18th. Even their loss to Providence Academy at the Mora Invite last month is looking more like a fluke. Of course, as the virtual meet indicates, Howald Lake has also definitely run on some fast courses, so their margin of victory in the season-average virtual meet is not as large as the season-best projection. But their advantage is clear, while question marks surround the teams behind them. The biggest question heading into the meet will be if Providence Academy's Emma Kelly will run. Kelly sustained a foot injury (possibly a stress fracture) about three weeks ago and she has not run since, but she is on track for a possible return for Sections (however the final decision will be made closer to raceday). If Kelly runs, Providence might have the inside track for the second qualifying spot, as they were ranked as high as 5th early in the season with a full and healthy lineup. But even if she does run, Maple Lake will be a difficult team to beat, as they have been ranked in the top ten nearly all season and took seventh at State last year while returning their whole lineup. Mora will be another team to pay close attention to, as they have been very close in head-to-head matchups with section rivals and other ranked teams all season, finishing within ten points of Maple Lake, four points of Howard Lake, 20 points of Lake City at Swain, and 18 of a full Providence team (but they don't have any signature wins over ranked teams as of yet this year). And Annandale certainly has a shot too, as the reigning section champions who returned most of their team from a third-place finish at State, but they have not yet recaptured the same magic as last year.
Individually, the meet's favorite may be Erika Swanson. The two-time All-State runner has won three races this year and posted time of 19:45 or better in five of her six races, and she's the only runner in the section to average under 20 minutes for her races. However, she will also be facing off against three other All-State runners, two of whom are returning Section champions with long lists of accolades. Madeline Kelly missed the 2017 cross country season with a knee injury, but she took fourth at State in 2016, while Emma Fashant last year took tenth. Gracie Mallak's highest finish for cross country is 21st, but she was a sixth-place finisher in the 1600m during track and has the fastest lifetime best in the field of 18:49. All four runners have won multiple races this year, however no runners have been nearly as consistent as Swanson, who has yet to finish outside the top five in a race. Fashant, on the other hand, will be very interesting to watch as her regular season as a whole has actually looked very similar, if not even better, than her regular season in 2017 when she was section champion and finished in the top ten at State, so she could very well do the same thing in 2018. Behind that top four are a slew of Howard Lake and Maple Lake runners who could certainly compete for a top spot, plus a real dark horse candidate in Pine City's Alaina Steele, a 2:17 800m runner who has very quietly racked up six top-five finishes and an even-faster season average time than Emma Fashant.
(written by Mark Rice)
*note: Maple Lake's varsity team ran a workout for the Dassel-Cokato Invite on September 25th, which is artificially pulling down their season average times.