PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 8A Championships
Location: Twin Pines Golf Course, Bagley
Weather: 45 degrees, 50% chance of rain
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Perham (24), East Grand Forks (71), Wadena-Deer Creek (120), Frazee (154)
Season Average Projection: Perham (26), East Grand Forks (77), Wadena-Deer Creek (125), Pequot Lake (156)
Top Individuals: Brandon O'Hara (Perham, 15:52), Cole Nowacki (EGF, 16:00), Clayton Anderson (Perham, 16:10), Tyson Mahar (EGF, 16:15), Jacob Mccleary (Perham, 16:31), Bailey Evenson (Perham, 16:32), Sakariye Ismail (EGF, 16:36), Christian Sterton (Ada-Borup/NCW), Chase Belka (Perham, 16:48), Lucas Hinojos (WDC, 16:52)
The Skinny: Perham is the defending state champion, the top-ranked boys team, are dominant in both versions of the virtual meet, and own a 16-year streak of qualifying for State. Needless to say, they're the pretty overwhelming favorite in Section 8a. They have five runners who have run 16:48 or better and really have yet to come close to losing to a Class A team. But for as strong a favorite as Perham is, East Grand Forks might have just as strong a hold on the runner-up position. A year after missing out on qualifying for State by a staggeringly large margin considering the type of season they had had up to that point (on a day that saw several inches of snow dumped on the course within the 24 hours preceding the race), East Grand Forks is riding high and ranked tenth in the State with a top-four that can compete with any team in Class A (even Perham) and an improving fifth runner. Perhaps nothing spells how much this team has improved this year like their head-to-head results against potential Class AA State qualifier Bemidji. In the first meet of the season, the big Thief River Falls Invitational with 17 scoring teams, EGF finished with 150 points with a 1-5 spread of 3:13 while Bemidji scored 65. In their last meet at Bemidji's home Invitational, Bemidji scored 71 points among the 12 scoring teams, while EGF was right on their heels with 72, and the 1-5 spread had been cut down to 2:10. If anyone can possibly challenge EGF for a spot at State, it would appear to be Wadena-Deer Creek, but they've scored about twice as many points as EGF in all three of their head-to-head matchups, so it would need to take an outstanding run from Wadena for the upset.
Individually, Perham and EGF combine for the top seven season-bests, topped out by fourth-ranked Brandon O'Hara, who has been outstanding this season averaging a time of 16:24 over nine races. It's been a breakout season for the junior who finished 138th, 126th, and 55th at State the past three years as a team member for Perham, while this year the entire list of Class A runners he has lost to consists of Geno Uhrbom, Harris Anderson, and Emmet Anderson. His teammate Clayton Anderson has usually not been far behind him either, so he'll cetrainly be in the mix. Meanwhile, the top runners from EGF, Tyson Mahar and 12th-ranked Cole Nowacki, have traded off the top spot over the season and form one of the most outstanding 1-2 punches in Class A, as it needs like one is never far from the other at any time. However, the most successful runner in the section is none of those runners, but actually defending Section champion and the 14th-place finisher at State last year Christian Sterton from Ada-Borup/NCW. After a stress fracture prevented Sterton from running over the summer and the first couple races of the season, he's worked his way back to close to the same shape he was in last year. Sterton just faced off against most of this meet's top competition in Bemidji where he outkicked Clayton Anderson and cut the gap between him, Mahar, and Nowacki to under 20 seconds after lagging much further behind them in previous matchups. It wouldn't be a huge shock to see Sterton defend his title, but O'Hara would probably need to have an off day for that to happen.
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Perham (24), Pequot Lakes (89), East Grand Forks (92), Pelican Rapids (151)
Season Average Projection: Perham (31), East Grand Forks (82), Pequot Lakes (104), Pelican Rapids (158)
Top Individuals: Katherine Geist (Crookston, 18:40), Liz Birkeland (Perham, 19:14), Annika Aho (United North Central, 19:25), Emily Vanwatermulen (Perham, 19:29), Caitlin Covington (Perham, 19:38), Jade Rypkema (Nevis, 19:52), Abby Syverson (Pelican Rapids, 19:55), Quincy Anderson (Perham, 19:57), Calia Chaney (Pequot Lakes, 19:58), Lydia Floden (EGF, 20:08)
The Skinny: Like the Perham boys, their girls team comes in with a remarkable State-qualifying streak (15 years). They are fellow defending State champions. But they are not the top-ranked team in Class A, as Cotter (the team who finished second behind Perham at State by a single point last year) passed them in the rankings after they beat Perham at the Roy Griak Invitational. That won't faze the Perham girls in this meet, however, as they are as big favorites as the boys, if not even bigger favorites. But the battle for second could be interesting, as both versions of the virtual meets put East Grand Forks and Pequot Lakes fairly close together. EGF has a more notable track-record this season, beating a few ranked teams and even getting ranked themselves at one point, while Pequot is more of an surprise contender who has developed some great young talent over the course of the season (six of Pequot's top seven are freshmen or younger). In fact, Pequot comes out ahead in the season-best virtual meet, but that is primarily due to the times run by Pequot runners at the Perham Classic, which EGF did not run at. The two teams faced off once this year at the Bagley/Fosston Invitational, where EGF beat Pequot by 98 points. However, Pequot was without Calia Chaney, and with her in the results rather than a runner who finished over 28 minutes, that difference could have been cut to less than ten points. Of course, that does point to one major advantage EGF, which is their depth. The season-best time for EGF's sixth and seventh runners is 21:30 and 22:27, while for Pequot it is 23:08 and 23:15, so it will be very important for Pequot Lakes not to have an off day by any of their top five.
The individual battle does not appear to be much of a battle - at least, not as far as who the winner will be. Katherine Geist has been a remarkable story this season, remaining undefeated and almost unchallenged the whole season just a year after only taking 51st at State, despite being just one of two runners on Crookston's whole team (she and her teammate Emily Gillette train with EGF). It would likely take a herculean effort from any other runner to beat Geist, so the real race will likely be for second. The spot could easily be won by any number of Perham girls (most notably Liz Birkeland, Caitlin Covington, and Emily Vanwatermulen), or United North Central's Annika Aho. Both Covington and Aho have had All-State finishes at State in the past for cross country, while Birkeland took seventh in the 3200m in track last fall as just a seventh grader. In fact, most of the section's top runners are quite young. Perham's Quincy Anderson and both of Pequot's top two runners Calia Chaney and Rian Zutter are seventh graders, and EGF's Lydia Floden is in 8th grade along with Nevis' Jade Rypkema.
(written by Mark Rice)