PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 2AA Championship
Location: Gale Woods Farm, Minnetrista
Weather: Low 50's, 50% chance of scattered showers
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Buffalo (67), Hutchinson (81), Mankato East (138), Willmar (139), Chanhassen (147), Worthington (147)
Season Average Projection: Buffalo (60), Willmar (101), Chanhassen (124), Hutchinson (124), Mankato East (140)
Top Individuals: Nicholas Scheller (Chanhassen, 15:30), Isaac Basten (Buffalo, 15:41), Torin Christianson (Chanhassen, 16:00), Jett Oachs (Mankato East, 16:07), Zach Matzner (Marshall, 16:22), Mitchell Grand (Hutchinson, 16:24), Nick Oak (Buffalo, 16:29), Adam Koller (Worthington, 16:32), Zach Long (Chanhassen, 16:33), Brett Hanson (Buffalo, 16:39), Ben Becker (Hutchinson, 16:40), Fuad Bashir (Willmar, 16:48)
The Skinny: The 9th-ranked Buffalo boys look primed to repeat their section title, as both virtual meets have them out in front. Led by Isaac Basten, the Bison return six of their top seven from last year's section roster. They'll be helped a lot by the addition of Brett Hanson, who had a strong 2017 before missing conference and sections. This year, he's been a pivotal member of their top three. The biggest potential weakness could be a projected gap between their third and their 4-5, but even then, that margin is fairly mild. After Buffalo, the picture gets a little murkier. The season-best projection looks much different than the season average one, favoring Hutchinson rather than Willmar. This is largely result of quick times being run at the Orono Twilight and the Litchfield Invite. That's not to say that Hutchinson will not be a contender though, as they sport a very solid team behind Mitchell Grand and Jack Jaeger. Hutchinson is also fresh off a strong performance at the Wright County Conference East Championship. They missed the conference title by just five points despite Mitchell Grand having an off day and falling out of the top seven. Willmar grabbed the second State berth last season, and while they did not graduate anyone from their top seven, their roster here will look different without Aden Aden and the emergence of other contributors like Colin O'Farrell and Adnan Mohumed. Fuad Bashir has also improved to become their top runner. However, at the Alexandria Lions Meet of Champions, it was Chanhassen who finished right behind Buffalo, 23 points in front of Willmar. One of the deepest regular season meets of the year, Chanhassen's extraordinary top three were able to have a bigger point gap on Willmar's frontrunners. There won't be as much displacement at sections, so it will certainly be a tighter affair. Nicholas Scheller, Torin Christianson, and Zach Long will all likely finish in front of Willmar's top runner, so if their fourth and fifth run well, they could nab the last State spot.
Two heavyweights will battle for the individual title, those being Scheller and Basten. Scheller ran his season best time at Alexandria, beating some of the top names in Minnesota, including Acer Iverson and Austin Streit. He also took down Basten by 19 seconds, and should be favored to reverse the 2017 section finish in which Basten emerged ahead. Basten has had his own impressive season, and his 15:41 season best was run on the Gale Woods course. These two should run clear of the field, creating a race for third. Scheller's teammate Torin Christianson will look to lead the rest of the pack. After a somewhat slower start to the season, Christianson looked to be finding the form of his 13th place finish at State last season when he dropped a 16:00 at Alexandria. If he keeps his momentum rolling, he will contend for a podium spot at State. Zach Long, the third Chanhassen standout has run just as well as his pre-injury self, and should also be in the mix. It's easy to forget that for years, Long ran side by side with Scheller at most races, and he beat Christianson at their conference race. Zach Matzner has also improved from his rookie year of XC, and should make an impact. Matzner most recently won the Big South Conference. Adam Koller was just six seconds back of him there and should again be close. And keep an eye out for Jett Oachs, who has flown somewhat under the radar, but has consistently run in the mid 16s this year.
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Willmar (44), Marshall (62), Waconia (135), Shakopee (136)
Season Average Projection: Willmar (46), Marshall (72), Shakopee (104), Waconia (131)
Top Individuals: Meghan Pierson (Chanhassen, 18:42), Kaleesa Houston (Waconia, 18:44), Heidi Schmitz (Willmar, 18:45), Isabelle Schmitz (Hutchinson, 18:52), Jersey Leyson (Marshall, 18:55), Leah Hansen (Willmar, 18:57), Amel Dayib (Willmar, 18:57), Bellamy Sukalski (Marshall, 18:57), Natalee Sample (Marshall, 19:01), Serena Monson (Willmar, 19:04), Olivia Beschorner (Mankato East, 19:08), Jayda Becker (Shakopee, 19:10), Riviera Wock (Orono, 19:23)
The Skinny: On the team side, two heavy favorites look primed to continue their winning ways. Both Willmar and Marshall have recent histories of success on the girls side, and will be favored to again advance to the State meet. Led by stalwarts Heidi Schmitz and Leah Hansen, the Willmar girls are top to bottom one of the best teams in the state. Amel Dayib has dropped off over two minutes from last year to give the Cardinals a third big weapon up front. And it seems like Serena Monson has found her footing after a somewhat slower start to the year, and was Willmar's top runner at their conference meet. That fearsome four, combined with a solid 5-6 makes them a shoo-in for a State berth. They're also favored over Marshall in both virtual meets, and will look to defend their section title. It won't come easily though, as Marshall will counter Willmar's top four with a quartet of their own. Jersey Leyson, Natalee Sample, Bellamy Sukalski, and Kate Bucher have all run 19:30 or faster on the year, and led the Tigers to a revealing runner-up finish to Stillwater at the Alexandria Lions Meet of Champions. They bested Willmar by 35 points, though that was with Serena Monson finishing as only Willmar's fourth runner. That strong finish is largely thanks to a huge race from 7th-grader Allyson Sample. If the younger Sample steps up again at sections, then Marshall may be favored, even with a top finish from Monson. Either way, the battle between these two should be a barn burner. If any team can pull an upset, Shakopee or Waconia look like the best candidates. Waconia will probably have one of the top three individual finishers in Kaleesa Houston, but will need the rest of their pack to have exceptional days to keep up to Marshall and Willmar's packs. The same is necessary for Shakopee. Though they don't have a frontrunner at the caliber of Houston, Jayda Becker and Annika Wilmert is a formidable duo that should be near the front. However, the overall depth of the Tigers and Cardinals will be a huge advantage on Thursday.
Any of Willmar's top four could feasibly win this meet, as each has been the top runner for the Cardinals at some point this season. Schmitz was the section champion a year ago, and has the quickest season best of her teammates, so she might be her squad's top candidate for the win. However, she'll first have to compete with Meghan Pierson and Kaleesa Houston. Pierson has been on a roll, running 18:50 or better in each of her last three races. She also took down Houston in both of their meetings, the most recent being the Chaska Victoria Lions Invitational. Pierson also finished fourth at Alexandria, in front of all the Marshall and Willmar girls. Natalee Sample and Jersey Leyson were eighth and ninth in that race, roughly 20 seconds back of Pierson. If either of them have strong days, they could surprise with a win as well. Houston has been trending upwards, and her 18:44 PR was just set at the Wright County Conference East Championship. Undoubtedly her best performance of the year, Houston's momentum could carry her to the win after finishing second in 2017. Isabelle Schmitz has also dipped under 19:00, and finished runner-up to Houston at their conference meet, so she should be in the mix as well. And keep an eye out for Jayda Becker, who has been consistently in the low 19s and finished fifth in the strong South Suburban Conference.