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2018 Minnesota XC Meet Previews
Milesplit MN Staff

PREVIEW

MSHSL Section 7AA Championships

Princeton, MN

Location: Princeton Golf Course, Princeton

Weather: Cloudy with probable showers. High of 51.

BOYS

Season Best Projections: Forest Lake (30), Cloquet (69), Elk River (122), Andover (159), North Branch (166)

Season Average Projections: Forest Lake (31), Cloquet (58), Elk River (119), Andover (149)

Top Individuals: Charlie Babcock (Forest Lake Area High, 15:56), Max Charlsen (Forest Lake, 16:21), Jordan Allen (Cloquet High School, 16:41), Daniel Vanacker (Forest Lake, 16:46), Lucas Gustafson (Elk River High, 16:47), Landon Aufderhar (Andover High School, 16:47), Blaine Bong (Cloquet High School, 16:49), Kade Layton (Big Lake High, 16:59), Jesse Bahen (Cloquet High School, 17:03), Drew Sampson (Forest Lake, 17:06)

The Skinny: Forest Lake looks to be the evident winner in the 7AA Championships coming in with 30 points in the projection, followed by Cloquet with 69 and Elk River at 122. Forest Lake as a whole has been having a solid season with an average time of 16:40 for their top 5 runners. Charlie Babcock has been leading the way for Forest Lake this season with a recent 15:56 at the Suburban East Conference Championships, which is his fastest time fall so far. Another notable race for Babcock was at the Milaca Mega Meet where he ran a 16:08. His average time this season is a 16:23, giving him a calculated advantage over his top competitors on Thursday. Max Charlsen (Forest Lake) looks to be a likely second in the prediction. His most recent race was a PR with a time of 16:21 at the Suburban East Championships. Charlsen has an average time of 16:45 this season, putting himself in a good position to finish in the top 3. 3 or 4 runners from Forest Lake will likely end up finishing in the top 5, but Jordan Allen (Cloquet) will possibly break that up. He has been steadily improving his time throughout the season with a PR at his most recent race with a time of 16:41 giving him a 1st place finish at the Proctor Lions Invite.

Daniel Vanacker (Forest Lake) looks to be another top 5 finisher, but after the top 3 predictions, it's as good as a best guess who will cross the finish line first. His first race was at Swain back in the beginning of October, but his most recent race resulted in a PR of 16:46 after 3 races in a 10 day span, which is impressive. Putting Elk River on the map will be Lucas Gustafson with a top 5 finish. He started off the season with a first place win at the Princeton Invite, and he most recently ran a 17:15 at the NW Suburban Conference. With there being such a large spread of points between the top three teams, it is likely that this prediction is fairly accurate and one can expect that this is what will happen on Thursday, given that everyone runs. Forest Lake handily took 1st place at last year's 7AA race with 30 points, compared to Cloquet (70) and Andover (96), and it is projected that they will likely finish with roughly the same this year.


GIRLS

Season Best Projections: Forest Lake (32), Andover (33), Zimmerman (105), Duluth East (150), Elk River (159)

Season Average Projections: Andover (29), Forest Lake (35), Zimmerman (105), Elk River (147), Duluth East (155)

Top Individuals: Alexa Havon (Andover High, 18:35), Jordan Parent (Forest Lake, 18:46), Ellie Hanowski (Forest Lake, 19:02), Alyssa Gerth (Andover High, 19:03), Cheresa Bouley (Zimmerman High, 19:07), Natalie Runquist (Forest Lake, 19:13), Claire Beckman (Andover High, 19:13), Regan Duffy (Forest Lake, 19:14), Lexi Duscher (Princeton High, 19:20), Julia Nielsen (Andover High 19:27)

The Skinny: The battle for first will be much closer on the the girls side with a virtual tie in the prediction between Forest Lake and Andover, and just one second separates the two in the average times of their top five runners. The dominance of these two teams makes the rest of the section pale in comparision, as both teams are poised to put their entire top seven in the top 22, meaning that at least one of the individual state qualifiers would not have even been able to run on either Forest Lake or Andover's varsity squad. The two teams have faced off against each other twice this year, once in a small meet in which Andover beat Foresl lake by just five points, and once in the Milaca Mega Meet when Andover won by 48 points and nearly beat Eden Prairie. However, in a meet where both teams are going to be so dominant, if could all come down to a matter of a few points.

Andover is led by Alexa Havon who will give any competition a run for their money at Thursday's race. Her most recent race was a first-place finish at the NW Suburban Conference Championships with a time of 19:08. She recently had another win at the STMA invite and a 5th place 18:35 finish just before that at the Milaca Mega Meet. She looks to be the top runner at the 7AA race, especially as she has had a little extra time off compared to her top opponent Jordan Parent (Forest Lake). Parent's times have been improving all season long, so she is clearly peaking at the right time. Her most recent race ended with a 3rd place PR finish at the Suburban East Conference Championships with a time of 18:46, just a few seconds behind 2nd place. Alyssa Gerth and Ellie Hanowski will be challenging near the front as well, as should past All-State runner Regan Duffy. Another runner to keep an eye out for on Thursday will be Cheresa Bouley. Never ranked this year, but often an honorable mention, she had a 4th place finish at Milaca and recently had a win at the Granite Ridge Conference Meet with a time of 19:40. 1st and 2nd place may be close, but Zimmerman will likely have a third place finish and could send as many as four individuals to State, as the prediction puts nearly 50 points between them and 4th place. Forest Lake had an impressive run last year with 19 points in the 7AA race, but will have to work much harder to have a repeat win this time around as Andover looks just as strong.

(written by Austin Meilke)

Section Previews

1A                    1AA
2A                    2AA
3A                    3AA
4A                    4AA
5A                    5AA
6A                    6AA
7A                    7AA
8A                    8AA