PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 8AA Championships
Location: Northland Community College Multi-Events Complex, Thief River Falls
Weather: High-40's, rain possible
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Moorhead (34), Bemidji (51), Sartell-Saint Stephen (89), Detroit Lakes (131)
Season Average Projection: Moorhead (43), Sartell-Saint Stephen (54), Bemidji (63), Saint Cloud Apollo (139)
Top Individuals: Zach Johnson (Moorhead, 15:46), Dawson Strom (Moorhead, 15:53), Samuel Ringger (Sauk Rapids-Rice, 16:10), Riley Berg (Bemidji, 16:31), Basil Ricker (Becker, 16:31), Nicholas Youso (Bemidji, 16:32), Lieban Mohamed (Apollo, 16:35), Jacob Kunka (Moorhead, 16:36), Gage Mostad (Bemidji, 16:37), Tanner Olson (Detroit Lakes, 16:40)
The Skinny: Moorhead has never been ranked higher than 12th this season in the Class AA polls. But don't let that fool you, as they have all the tools to end up in the top five at the State Championships. However, the reason Moorhead has not managed to crack the top ten in the polls has been their inconsistency this season. A few of the teams they have both won and lost head-to-head matchups with include Perham, Hopkins, and Bemidji. It was their 39-point loss to Hopkins at the Willmar Invitational that caused them to fall out of the rankings, and they have not returned since. But there is no denying that the one-two punch of Zach Johnson and Dawson Strom form one of the best duos of low sticks in the State, and Moorhead has excellent depth which has allowed them to interchange their fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh runners at various times this season. They even managed an excellent team showing at the Bemidji Invite without Dawson Strom (who sat out that meet with achilles tendonitis, but is expected to run this week barring a setback). Bemidji, meanwhile, is one of the more enviable teams in the state as they have just a 24-second 1-5 spread, and all five runners have broken 17 minutes this season. However, they actually have lost both of their head-to-head matchups with the defending Section champions from Sartell, and while both of them have been close, Sartell also has the advantage on the season-average projection despite having never run on courses like Moorhead and Perham which produced some very fast times for the teams who ran there. Both Sartell and Bemidji have looked very solid recently, and it's nearly impossible at to make a call between those two squads, so the battle between those two teams will be one of the most interesting battles to watch this week.
Individually, it is Johnson and Strom matching up against Sam Ringger at the front, and it will almost certainly be one of those three runners who takes the individual win. Johnson has taken the win in two races this season and been a top-three finisher in seven of his eight races. Strom has usually finished behind Johnson in their races together, though usually not far behind. Ringger, meanwhile, is on a streak of winning four consecutive races and is fresh off a win in the Central Lakes Conference Championships, and as the 30th-place finisher at the State Championships last year, he's the athlete with the best State placement of anyone in the field. But if there is anyone with a chance to break up this top trio of runners, it is Apollo's Lieban Mohamed. It has been a breakout year for the junior who was 47th at sections in 2017, and he has been remarkably consistent this season with seven consecutive sub-17 performances and five finishes in the top three. He does not have a win to his name as of yet, but he's been involved in a large number of closes races. One more athlete to keep a close eye on too is Detroit Lake's Tanner Olson, who's been improving steadily every single race this year and ran 16:28 at the state Championships last fall.
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Becker (78), Alexandria (82), Rocori (103), Moorhead (116), Sartell-Saint Stephen (116), Monticello (130)
Season Average Projection: Rocori (76) Becker (76), Alexandria (84), Monticello (91), Sartell-Saint Stephen (100), Moorhead (135)
Top Individuals: Ingrid Buiceag-Arama (Sartell, 18:59), Lexi Dehmer (Becker, 19:00), Danielle Nuest (Becker, 19:06), Victoria Kolbinger (Becker, 19:16), Elise Yeager (Monticello, 19:22), Regan Dewitt (Bemidji, 19:22), Gwen Youso (Bemidji, 19:24), Melton Taylor (Moorhead, 19:33), Emily Nuss (Fergus Falls, 19:33), Aspen Rohde (Fergus Falls)
The Skinny: Perhaps no race in the state enters this week with less clarity as to the likely State qualifiers as the Section 8AA girls. But that may not have been unexpected considering that last season, an extremely windy race where the top six teams were separated by just 38 points, and those same six teams (Moorhead, Alexandria, Becker, Monticello, Rocori, and Sartell) are the same ones in the mix this year. In both versions of the virtual meets, Becker is one of the qualifiers, a year after they were ranked all season long and considered the strong favorite only to finish third by nine points. Becker returns most of that team (minus only Allie Hendrickson who graduated), so they'll almost certainly enter the race with some unfinished business. However, in spite of their solid numbers on paper, head-to-head matchups between Becker and other Section 8AA teams are highly unfavorable - they are one-for-two against Rocori (who held out their top middle school runners the time Becker beat them), have two big losses to Alexandria (and one win in which Bethany and Jaelyn Miller were missing), own three losses against both Sartell and Monticello, and they've finished behind Moorhead as well. All that said, Becker has also missed fourth runner Adeline Kent the first month of the season and top runner Lexi Dehmer for three meets, so those head-to-head matchups may not be indicative of the type of team they are now, who are fresh off a win at the Granite Ridge Conference Championships and running at full-strength. But even at full strength, it may be a real challenge to beat Alexandria, who has won every head-to-head matchup against a section opponent they've had since their first meet of the season when they had two missing Millers. But many of those matchups have been very close. Monticello, Sartell, and Rocori (twice) have all come within ten points of beating them, even in some big meets. The young neon-wearing Rocori squad also looks like they have an excellent chance at qualifying, looking very good in October in particular as they've taken third at the Swain Invitational AA race (behind STMA and Forest Lake) and the CLC Championships (just four points behind Alexandria). Monticello's best moments this year have been their runner-up performances at both the Milaca Mega Meet and the Mississippi 8 Conference Meet, and they've battled tough against Sartell in four tries, as each team has taken two wins each. And while they look like a long shot at this point, the defending champions from Moorhead cannot be counted out.
The individual battle will almost certainly not be nearly as interesting as the team matchup, as one runner really has established herself as a favorite with her consistently-great performances in both times and placement. Ingrid Buceag-Arama took second at Sections last year and is the top returner, and she's the only runner in the field with a sub-19 minute run on the record this year (she has actually run exactly 18:59 twice). The only runners who have beaten her in the past five races are runners who were either ranked or an honorable mention in the Class AA polls, and she's racked up three wins in that time. Her most recent win may have been her most impressive of all, taking first at the CLC Championships all of Willmar's remarkable seniors. Behind Buceag-Arama, there will likely be a large pack of talented runners, most of whom will have at least one teammate to compete with. Becker's trio of Lexi Dehmer, Danielle Nuest, and Victoria Kolbinger, Monticello's Elise Yeager and Gabriella Witschen, Bemidji's Regan Dweitt and Gwen Youso, and any one of Alexandria's top runners (which include all three Millers) will probably be in that pack, and they all have very similar accomplishments this season. If one runner from that group perhaps stands out a little bit more than the others, it might be Yeager, who's average 5k time this year of 19:40 is second behind Buceag-Arama's.