PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 4A Championships
Location: Battle Creek Park, Maplewood
Weather: Cloudy, high around 50, rain not expected
BOYS
Season Best Projections: Jordan (65), Nova Classical Academy (70), Minnehaha Academy (93), Mounds Park Academy (126), Holy Family Catholic (156)
Season Average Projection: Nova Classical Academy (59), Minnehaha Academy (87), Mounds Park Academy (104), Jordan (105), Holy Family Catholic (121)
Top Individuals: Harris Anderson (MSA, 16:12), Henry Snider (MPA, 16:34), Matthew Bourne (MPA, 16:35), Maxwell Gifford (Minnehaha, 16:50), Dare Akinmusire (Nova, 16:56), Isaac Dold (Jordan, 17:08), Jacob Strack (Jordan, 17:09), Mason Beise (SWCHS, 17:09), Tavin Zeise (Nova, 17:13), Shef West (Blake, 17:17)
The Skinny: 6th-ranked Nova and 7th-ranked Minnehaha both sit ahead of the unranked Jordan in the polls, but Jordan is likely to have a few more runners crossing the finish line ahead of Nova based on the season-best projections, even while Symon Keiser has sit out the last month with injury. This is mainly due to Jordan's Championship performance at the Minnesota River Conference where nearly every runner ran a season-best by a big margin (the season-average projection puts them in fourth). While they were certainly running on a quick course that saw a ton of season bests across the board, just as much a factor is that their runners have always been able to step it up towards the end of the season, as evidenced by their very tight Section championships last year. Remarkably, they have not had any head-to-head matchups this year with the two most highly-regarded teams in the section, Nova and Minnehaha, so we're a bit blind as to where Jordan truly stands. Both Nova and Minnehaha, meanwhile, have some unfinished business as neither of them qualified for State last year despite both also being ranked at the time. Minnehaha was considered a top contender coming into the season, and they have not disappointed as they've seen some great performances as a team, including a win at the Swain Invitational over several other ranked teams. Nova, meanwhile, proved at the Milaca Mega Meet that they are just as strong as last year (if not even better) with a runner-up finish over several ranked teams, even after the graduation of several key members. They've seen each other just once at the Jefferson Jaguar Challenge on September 25th, where Nova came out on top by 24 points. Also in the mix is the returning State qualifier Mounds Park Academy, who finished just six points behind Minnehaha at the IMAC Championships, which is a similar spot to where they were heading into Sections last year when they upset them. However, their only (healthy) matchup with Nova at at the Trinity Invite on October 2nd when they lost by 42 points, so they'll certainly have their work cut out for them to make it back.
The top of the Individual list is a strong one, with several athletes having sub 17 minute runs this season in this Class A section. They will be lead by the the Math and Science Academy Junior Harris Anderson, who has had to miss his last two races with knee pain, but the move was mainly precautionary and he's expected to be racing at full strength at Sections. Meanwhile, improving his 5K time each run this year is Henry Snider (Mounds Park), who could give Anderson a race, as he just had a PR with a time of 16:34 at the Independent Metro Athletic Conference Championships. Another Mounds Park runner likely to right up there with Snider is Matthew Bourne, who finished 2nd at the IMAC Championships with a time of 16:35. Maxwell Gifford of Minnehaha Academy also race there, taking third in 16:51, and Nova's Dare Akinmusire will be in the mix as well.
GIRLS
Season Best Projections: Jordan (61), Blake (63), Minnehaha Academy (100), Mounds Park Academy (140), Math and Science Academy (153)
Season Average Projection: Jordan (60), Blake (60), Minnehaha Academy (104), Mounds Park Academy (104), Math and Science Academy (157)
Top Individuals: Tierney Wolfgram (MSA, 17:06), Basia Babcock (Jordan, 19:49), Margo Nightingale (MPA, 19:50), Molly Liston (Blake, 19:50), Greta Hansen (MSA, 20:06), Grace Kassebaum (Minnehaha, 20:08), Katie Dahiya (MPA, 20:20), Kendra Krueger (Jordan, 20:22), Jackie Weyerhaeuser (Blake, 20:27), Molly Dinardo (Minnehaha, 20:27)
The Skinny: For the 4A Girls, the race to first place could be very close as just a few points separate Jordan and The Blake School in both versions of the virtual meet. Blake has really come on the scene in recent weeks after being a bit off the radar to start (they took 5th at Sections last year), but their recent performances have pushed them up to 11th in the Class A polls. They've won both their head-to-head matchups this year with Jordan, and the extra week of rest under Blake's belt compared to Jordan could possibly work to their advantage on Thursday. However, they have not faced each other in a month, and both teams have gotten a lot better since then, as Jordan is fresh off a second-place showing at the Minnesota River Conference behind 6th-ranked Belle Plaine. For Jordan's top seven, the average time is 20:53.90, and it's 20:53.88 for Blake, so in reality it could be either team on top for Thursday's race. Minnehaha Academy looks to be the third place team in the projection, led by Grace Kassebaum, while Margo Nightengale's MPA squad will give them a challenge too.
The current top high school runner Tierney Wolfgram, ranked ninth in the nation, is slated to run after taking the Twin Cities Athletic Conference Meet off last week. To say she has just been running well this season is an understatement - coming off the heels of her phenomenal sixth place Twin Cities Marathon just a few weeks ago, she looks to be the top runner by a wide margin in the 4A race. Looking back, she had a very impressive win at the Milaca Mega Meet, finishing over a whole minute and a half quicker than Ava Hill. She also placed 2nd at the Griak Invite behind the other top state runner Emily Covert. It will be interesting to see how she does on Thursday as she continues recovering from the TC Maraton, but it shouldn't be difficult to predict that she will run away with the win. Well behind Wolfgram sits the rest of the section, with Basia Babcock, Margo Nightengale, and Molly Liston all the likely contenders for second as the only other runners to break the 20-minute barrier this year. Greta Hansen and Grace Kassebaum will also be in the mix for the runner-up spot.