PREVIEW
MSHSL Section 1A Championships
Location: Northern Hills Golf Course, Rochester
Weather: Low 50's, small chance of rain
BOYS
Season Best Projection: Lake City (67), Plainview-Elgin Millville (74), Stewartville (126), La Crescent-Hokah (138), Rochester Lourdes (139)
Season Average Projection: Plainview-Elgin Millville (74), Lake City (75), La Crescent-Hokah (113), Lewiston-Altura/Rushford-Peterson (129), Stewartville (142)
Top Individuals: Austin Dawley (PEM, 16:34), Axel Daood (St. Charles, 16:36), Hunter Grimm (Lake City, 16:45), Samson Hagen (PEM, 16:47), Tanner Horton (Pine Island, 16:55), Danny Langworthy (Pine Island, 16:57), Alexander Lawrence (Stewartville, 16:59), Luke O'Hare (LARP, 17:08), Korrigan Diercks (St. Charles, 17:10), Griffin Doughty (PEM, 17:11)
The Skinny: Overall, this section is up for grabs on the boys side. On paper, Lake City and Plainview-Elgin-Millville look like the top contenders for the two state berths. Those two squads take the top spots in both virtual meets, with each earning around 70 points. In two previous meetings at the Lake City Invite and Swain Meet, 12th-ranked Plainview-Elgin-Millville edged out Lake City by roughly 30 points. Plainview-Elgin-Millville's top four have performed solidly, putting a gap on Lake City that their stronger fifth runner cannot make up. And Plainview-Elgin-Millville's fifth has been improving over the course of the year, greatly improving the chances of a section title. Lake City has the low stick they need in Hunter Grimm, but their tight 2-5 pack will need to run closer to the front to secure a state qualifying position. At the Hiawatha Valley League Conference Championships, the Tigers defeated Stewartville by 35 points. If the Stewartville boys wish to advance to state, they'll have to provide more support for Alexander Lawrence and Jakob Ratelle. At their conference race, Lake City's entire top seven finished before Stewartville's third runner. That's a stark difference from the Lake City Invite, in which La Crescent-Hokah and Stewartville were just nine and eleven points back of the home team. Those two teams will need a similar performance if they wish to pull an upset here.
Individually, seven athletes have broken 17:00 on the year, but only one has done it multiple times. That leaves a wide open field. Interestingly, all of those times were run on the Hok-Si-La Park course, either at the Lake City Invite or the Hiawatha Valley Conference Championships. With the latter race being contested more recently, perhaps Hunter Grimm should be the favorite here. He's the lone athlete with multiple sub-17:00 times (at the two aforementioned competitions) and beat projected top finishers Tanner Horton, Danny Langworthy, and Alexander Lawrence at their conference meet. The fastest average 5k time this season belongs to Luke O'Hare, who has consistently run in the low 17s and took down many of the top names in the field at the Three Rivers Conference Championships. Among those were Plainview-Elgin-Millville's trio of Austin Dawley, Griffin Doughty, and Samson Hagen, as well as Korrigan Diercks and Axel Daood. Dawley and Daood own the fastest two season bests in the field, both being run at the Lake City Invite. The win here should come down to one of the names mentioned, but with no clear frontrunner, whoever has the best day will grab the section title.
GIRLS
Season Best Projection: Stewartville (71), Lake City (87), Cotter (93), Rochester Lourdes (117), Byron (155)
Season Average Projection: Cotter (70), Lake City (80), Stewartville (91), Rochester Lourdes (146), RAACHE Jaguars (157)
Top Individuals: Grace Ping (Cotter, 18:03), Lauren Ping (Cotter, 18:15), Natasha Sortland (Zumbrota-Mazeppa, 18:30), Morgan Arnold (Cotter, 18:46), Jacey Majerus (Lake City, 18:52), Kailee Malone (Stewartville, 19:04), Lauryn Renier (Rochester Lourdes, 19:06), Meg Degen (Rochester Lourdes, 19:26), Laura Pedelty (Stewartville, 19:45), Kayla Christopherson (Pacelli, 19:49)
The Skinny: On the girls side, the amount of talent is off the charts. Four of the top six ranked individuals, and three of the top seven ranked teams will battle it out. Grace and Lauren Ping need no introduction, each previously earning All-American status at NXN. In the majority of their races, the sisters have separated themselves from the field, and there's no reason to expect any different outcome here. The only question will be which one emerges ahead. Other than Griak, Grace has been the first to cross the line in every race this fall, but Lauren has always been closely in pursuit. Natasha Sortland burst onto the scene in 2017, and has had a very successful follow up-effort. With back to back runs in the 18:30s, Sortland should be able to keep the Pings in sight. Morgan Arnold proved that she can hang with the best in Minnesota after a breakout 21st place finish at Griak in a lifetime best of 18:46. She should compete with Sortland for third. Jacey Majerus just broke 19:00 for the first time after an impressive 3rd place finish at Swain, so she could surprise against the best competition she's faced yet. Lauryn Renier, Kailee Malone, and Meg Degen were next to follow Majerus at their conference meet, so they could again be chasing her. And Kayla Christopherson has been in the top ten at State for three years straight, and will look to punch her ticket to keep that streak alive.
After returning the core four from a team that missed the 2017 State title by just a point, expectations for Cotter were riding high entering the start of this season. The Cotter girls have not disappointed, taking over the top spot in the rankings for much of the year. Their campaign is highlighted by a phenomenal 13th place finish in a stacked Griak field. Not only did they finish as the top Class A squad, but they also beat the defending champion Perham girls by 14 places and over 200 points. On paper, it actually looks like more of a toss-up, as Cotter is projected to finish third using season bests, and win by just ten points using season averages. However, that may be a bit misleading. Other than the Stewartville Bill Glomski Invitational, which took place way back in August, the Cotter girls haven't really been on a course that produces fast times, while Stewartville and Lake City have each raced on the very fast Hok-Si-La Park course twice. And the fact that Cotter emerges ahead using season averages is an encouraging sign, as last season, they looked on paper like they might miss a State berth altogether before easily qualifying and nearly winning the State title. That's largely due to a large spread between their top four and their fifth that becomes overblown on paper, along with the how the Cotter girls always seem to peak when it matters most. Their fourth and fifth both PRed at the State meet in 2017 after slow starts to their year. Battling for the second state berth will be 4th-ranked Stewartville and 7th-ranked Lake City. Both are very deserving teams, and it is a shame that one will not advance. They've battled twice before, with Stewartville coming out in front on both occasions. Most recently, Stewartville took the Hiawatha Valley League Conference title by twelve points over Lake City. Stewartville made up the bulk of their gap with stronger third and fourth runners, though Lake City's middle scorers have improved by an impressive margin over the course of the year. If they do so again, they could pull an upset. At the Lake City Invite, the home team finished six in front of Stewartville's fifth. Displacement like that could be Lake City's path to State. And Rochester Lourdes owns a better 1-2 than either of those teams, but will need more support from their 4-5 if they wish to contend for a State berth. They were third, 14 points back of Lake City at their conference meet.